SPGI fell ~5% on a miss that was the Mobility spin
u/wkgui ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· August 24, 2026 at 03:12
· ⬆ 16 pts
· 💬 8 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
SPGI fell ~5% after Q2 as market treated Mobility spin as a miss and ~10% guidance cut.
Author argues the drop is misplaced: continuing ops grew revenue +10% and adjusted EPS +23%, with Ratings and Indices growing 13% and 20% at ~70% margins.
Thesis: market is paying one multiple for two businesses and ignoring the moat in ratings/indices, unlike FICO’s regulatory vulnerability.
Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with specific financials, peer comparisons, and a clear reframing of the spin; not speculation or noise.
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I noticed S&P Global dropped about 5% after Q2 on a "miss" and a \~10% "guidance cut." I don't think that's what happened.
Mobility left on July 1. The new $17.50–17.75 guide is continuing ops. The old $19.40–19.65 included Mobility. The company got smaller on a scheduled date. The remaining business printed revenue +10% and adjusted EPS +23%.
The useful split is inside the stub. Ratings and Indices grew 13% and 20% at about 70% margins. Market Intelligence and Commodity Insights grew 6% and 3%. Same shape at Moody's (Investors Service +25%, Analytics +4%) and MSCI (Index +17.5%, Analytics +6.6%).
FICO is the bound. A score written into a federal rulebook can actually get broken. A rating or an index written into private contracts is a different thing.
https://www.investmoat.com/research/sp-global-and-the-half-with-the-moat
Mine. Not advice. Is the spin the whole story, or are you still paying one multiple for two businesses?
Mobility spun off July 1; new guidance reflects continuing ops only, not a true cut. Market misread the spin as deterioration, creating a valuation reset on a faster-growing, higher-margin core. SPGI’s Ratings/Indices moats justify a re-rate once investors separate continuing ops from Mobility. Continued macro slowdown hurting issuance volumes, or multiple compression if market stays focused on headline guidance.