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GOOGL earnings 7/22 the GAAP number is going to look insane

u/Akuda · Reddit — r/wallstreetbets · July 18, 2026 at 10:55 · ⬆ 15 pts · 💬 29 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Summary

  • Post argues GOOGL will report a massive GAAP EPS beat on July 22 due to a ~$70B unrealized gain from Google’s ~5-6% stake in SpaceX (SPCX), which IPO’d in June.
  • Author estimates EPS could be $5-7 vs. consensus $2.89, driving a headline earnings beat that could attract attention and push the stock higher.
  • Author is personally bullish, holding call options (mostly August 21 expiry) with a target of $380+; acknowledges model delay news as a near-term drag.

  • Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with specific data on SpaceX valuation, accounting treatment, and historical precedent; the thesis is grounded in a real, quantifiable event (SpaceX IPO) and is not pure speculation.

Score 15
Comments 29
Upvote % 89%
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Ideas
u/Akuda Reddit r/wallstreetbets
Google owns ~5-6% of SpaceX; at SPCX's June 30 close of $170.86, that stake is worth ~$113B, up ~$70B from last quarter. This gain flows through GAAP income and could add $4.50 to EPS on top of the $2.89 consensus estimate. Analysts do not include this below-the-line mark in their estimates, so an actual GAAP EPS of $5-7 (+55% to +142% beat) will generate headlines and likely drive bullish momentum, especially as the stake is now liquid and can be sold or borrowed against. Go long GOOGL into earnings for a potential outsized EPS surprise that the market is not pricing in; the SpaceX gain is a real, tangible asset that strengthens the balance sheet and counters the capex bear case. The gain is non-recurring and purely accounting; the stock may not react as strongly if the market focuses on core business revenue or model delay news; lockup expiration in December could create overhang; if Google chooses to report the gain through OCI (other comprehensive income) rather than through the income statement, the EPS impact could be smaller.
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This Reddit post, published July 18, 2026, features u/Akuda discussing GOOGL. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Akuda  · Tickers: GOOGL