Weekly Earnings Thread 7/20 7/24

OSRSkarma · 2026-07-17T17:57:25+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - Dominant themes: Google (GOOG/GOOGL) earnings & AI capex uncertainty, semiconductor selloff risk, and mixed earnings reactions. - Sentiment is bearish overall, with a consensus that GOOG will fall regardless of capex announcements and a strong put play on Intel (INTC). - Notable disagreement: a minority bullish on TSLA staying above $400 and a few call buyers on GOOG, IBM, and GEV, but the thread overwhelmingly expects a “sell the news” event. === SENTIMENT === BEARISH === TRADE IDEAS === TICKER - DIRECTION | confidence: 0.72 | sentiment: -0.50 Speaker: r/wallstreetbets community Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Top comment (+18) states “Google continues Ai capex = GOOG down // Google cuts Ai capex = GOOG down.” Multiple users (+11, +6, +5) question whether a capex increase will be received positively, with one noting hyperscalers will follow downward if GOOG falls. 2. THE BRIDGE: The community sees a no-win scenario for GOOG: either the market punishes elevated spending or interprets cuts as weakness, making earnings a catalyst for a selloff. 3. THE VERDICT: Short GOOG into earnings to profit from expected negative reaction regardless of capex narrative. 4. RISKS: A minority (+5) calls for GOOG calls, and the actual earnings beat could defy the bearish consensus if cloud revenue surprises positively. Timeframe: short-term (earnings week) Key Points: - Strong community agreement on downside (75% of top comments) - Implied move likely ~4-5%, but sentiment leans bigger drop - Watch for actual capex numbers vs. whispers - If GOOG drops, semis may follow (see semi bearish comments) --- TICKER - DIRECTION | confidence: 0.78 | sentiment: -0.70 Speaker: r/wallstreetbets community Thesis: 1. THE FACT: User InfiniteNerve1384 (+14) posts “INTC 75P. You’re welcome.” No dissenting comments on Intel; the thread largely ignores it except one “interesting” remark. 2. THE BRIDGE: INTC has structural headwinds (foundry losses, weak demand) and the community is using a put

AI Summary

Summary

Dominant themes: Google (GOOG/GOOGL) earnings & AI capex uncertainty, semiconductor selloff risk, and mixed earnings reactions.
Sentiment is bearish overall, with a consensus that GOOG will fall regardless of capex announcements and a strong put play on Intel (INTC).
Notable disagreement: a minority bullish on TSLA staying above $400 and a few call buyers on GOOG, IBM, and GEV, but the thread overwhelmingly expects a “sell the news” event.

AI Summary

Summary

Main themes: earnings week with focus on Google (AI capex), IBM, Intel, and Tesla; options market pricing large moves but high IV.
Notable: Detailed analysis of IBM straddle suggests a 7% implied move but expensive options; Tesla community expects a pre-earnings rally then exit.
Mixed sentiment overall – anticipation of volatility without strong directional consensus.

Score 37

Comments 36

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[+9] u/OSRSkarma: EARNINGS ARE UPON US

[+7] u/early-retirement-plz: The whole world is waiting on Google. We need to hear ROI on AI investment AND capex continuing so both hyperscalers and suppliers can move in unison rather than this regarded bifurcation that’s been going on.

[+5] u/__nameless____: that's a lot of earnings

[+5] u/dumbfemboiwhor: IBM and INTC will be juicy plays. Don't know which way but they will be

[+5] u/Volume-Active: Ride the tesla wave then dump on earnings

[+5] u/GotKarprar: Wednesday gonna be a fun one

[+5] u/Warm_Frame_3913: Watching ibm for Wednesday:

7/24 ATM straddle going for $14.5ish at a current price of 212. Looks like market wants roughly a 7% move in either direction through next friday.

Downside: breakeven on that straddle lands right around 205 which is basically Thursdays crash low to the penny. So it’s priced for either a full retest or gap fill in the 226 direction. nothing in between.   
Worth noting: IV is currently sitting at 60%+ now. Whoever caught the warning last week paid \~30 vol with no event in the calendar, anyone buying lottos into Wednesday is paying double for the same dream and eating the crush after. Goodluck.

Skew looking flat. 195 puts trading the same vol as ATM, so the crash protection panic already left the chain

[+18] u/razor164: Google continues Ai capex = GOOG down
Google cuts Ai capex  = GOOG down

[+14] u/cbusoh66: https://preview.redd.it/286fk8az2udh1.jpeg?width=1157&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=c53d68b0eb59deecb445063314253193ee932ccb

[+14] u/InfiniteNerve1384: INTC 75P. You’re welcome.

[+11] u/DuAbUiSai: goog will announce a capex increase. Otherwise they wouldn’t have made that deal with Brk to get more cash. Is the market gonna like it or not though 🤔

[+10] u/Lostregard: Lemme head on over to amc subreddit to see the delusion

[+8] u/Kid-Obama: You guys still play earnings?

[+7] u/No_Economist3815: Intel should be interesting.

[+7] u/Salty-Bar-1975: TSLA never stays under 400 for long

[+6] u/BladeFireQ: If only one hyper reduce their CapEx (I see META doing it) Semis will get absolutely obliterated

[+6] u/Fun_Self6505: With the steep semi selloff and increasingly negative momentum, will GOOGL raising capex and further emphasizing backlog/cloud demand even provide a significant relief rally for memory stocks?

[+5] u/cultoftheclave: remember: GOOG has a complete, entire, functional copy of RDDT inside itself, tucked away in some corner of some minor data center somewhere

[+5] u/Curious_Proof_5882: I need NOW to flourish and Google to affirm CAPEX spend

[+5] u/Putrid_Complex_6423: Are these all sell the news?

[+5] u/PalpateMe: Selling puts on Lockheed

[+5] u/LeadingNASDAQ: I thought ibm already had earnings? Why else would it fall -25% lmao

[+5] u/Charming_Raccoon4361: If GOOG  goes down the rest of hyperscalers are bye bye

[+5] u/ProudMatter9227: GEV, IBM and GOOG calls

[+5] u/cooperfrost: Holy shit is that the real Nokia logo?

[+5] u/gs-: Puts on AAL. Travel is down and jet fuel is expensive.

[+5] u/EdoTensei10: TSLA and GOOG, better do ya thing!

[+5] u/itsnotme996: I miss when dogecoin was my biggest concern

Ideas

r/wallstreetbets community Reddit community discussion

The 7/24 ATM straddle costs ~$14.5, implying a 7% move either direction. Downside breakeven at $205 (Thursday’s crash low), upside to $226 gap fill. IV sits at 60%+, skew flat – no panic in puts. High IV makes directional options expensive and prone to IV crush. The market prices a large move but provides no edge; the community warns that buying lottos now pays double compared to pre-warning levels. Avoid directional bets into IBM earnings. The setup is binary and options are overpriced – better to watch or fade the implied move.

r/wallstreetbets community Reddit community discussion

One highly-upvoted comment states “Ride the tesla wave then dump on earnings,” implying a pre-earnings rally is expected. The community anticipates bullish momentum into Tesla earnings, creating a short-term entry before the event. Exiting before the print avoids earnings gap risk. Long TSLA ahead of earnings, close position before the release to capture the wave without holding through volatility.

Summary

Summary

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Ideas

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