Memory revenue is only up ~20-40%, but the memory makers' profits jumped an order of magnitude. What's actually driving the gap?

u/Aya_Research · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · July 08, 2026 at 14:22 · ⬆ 16 pts · 💬 34 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Summary

  • The post examines why memory makers’ profits surged far more than revenue (~20-40% increase) – gross margins jumped from 37% to 84% – questioning the role of AI demand, inventory clearing, and HBM crowding out commodity DRAM.
  • The author suspects the profit spike is almost entirely price-driven (operating leverage from fixed costs) and therefore fragile, not structurally durable.
  • Quality assessment: Well-reasoned analytical question (not a full DD), highlighting a key cyclical versus structural tension in the memory industry.
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