When the bull case is 8x the bear case, there's no 'fair value' left to anchor to. Morgan Stanley's SpaceX initiation.

iceollie · 2026-07-08T09:30:38+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The post critiques Morgan Stanley’s valuation range for SpaceX ($75–$600), noting an 8x spread between bear and bull cases. - The author argues the wide dispersion stems from mixing a real, modelable business (Starlink, launch contracts) with pure optionality (Starship, satellite/AI buildout), making “fair value” meaningless. - The conclusion is that there is no margin of safety, and investing becomes a bet on which narrative wins, not a valuation exercise. - **Quality assessment**: Thoughtful commentary but speculative and not a data-driven DD; more of a philosophical trade-off analysis. === SENTIMENT === NEUTRAL === TRADE IDEAS === No actionable trade ideas in this post.

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The post critiques Morgan Stanley’s valuation range for SpaceX ($75–$600), noting an 8x spread between bear and bull cases.
The author argues the wide dispersion stems from mixing a real, modelable business (Starlink, launch contracts) with pure optionality (Starship, satellite/AI buildout), making “fair value” meaningless.
The conclusion is that there is no margin of safety, and investing becomes a bet on which narrative wins, not a valuation exercise.
Quality assessment: Thoughtful commentary but speculative and not a data-driven DD; more of a philosophical trade-off analysis.

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