Never bet against Google. Google is in its strongest position ever.
u/Delicious_Invite_127 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· 2026년 7월 8일, 06:07
· ⬆ 20 포인트
· 💬 45 개 댓글
| Reddit에서 보기 ↗
AI 요약
=== 요약 ===
- 작성자는 구글(GOOGL)이 저평가되어 있으며 AI 검색, Android, GCP, YouTube에서 독점적 지위를 가진 역대 최강이라고 주장합니다.
- Gemini/Deepmind, Waymo, 지분 투자 등 수익화되지 않은 자산이 2조 달러 이상의 옵셔널리티를 추가하여 30배 PER을 정당화한다고 주장합니다.
- 품질 평가: 일부 사실적 근거가 있는 투기적 과장; 엄격한 재무 모델링이나 위험 분석이 부족하지만 강한 확신을 가진 롱 투자 의견을 반영합니다.
=== 심리 ===
강세
=== 거래 아이디어 ===
GOOGL - 롱 | 신뢰도: 0.80 | 심리: +0.85
발언자: u/Delicious_Invite_127
투자 의견:
1. 사실: 작성자는 구글의 핵심 사업(AI 검색, Android, GCP, YouTube)이 지배적이고 성장 중이며, 수익화되지 않은 문샷이 수조 달러 가치라고 주장합니다.
2. 연결: 현재 밸류에이션(역사적 PER ~30배)이 Gemini, Deepmind, Waymo 및 기타 보유 자산의 합계 가치를 무시하여 상승 여력이 있다는 믿음.
3. 결론: GOOGL은 강력한 펀더멘탈에 큰 옵셔널리티를 더한 매수 의견입니다. 시장은 AI/자율주행의 미래 수익화를 과소평가합니다.
4. 위험: 규제 독점 금지 조치, Microsoft/OpenAI의 AI 경쟁, 광고 수익 둔화, 문샷 수익화 실패, 광범위한 기술주 조정.
기간: 장기
핵심 포인트:
- AI 검색이 수익성과 해자를 강화
- Android/Google Play 플랫폼 강세
- GCP가 내부 AI/통신 인프라 활용
- YouTube, 수익화 이후 마진 확대
- Waymo/Gemini가 수조 달러의 옵셔널리티 제공
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I stopped doing cheerleading for Google ever since its returns exceeded my expectations. But now it seems this is necessary again because I m seeing lots of people starting to doubt Google's valuation.
Someone posted a very sad, poorly put together bear thesis on Google assuming some arbitrary heuristics benchmarks to show the stock is overvalued. But let me tell you it is not overvalued. So I m sharing my side of the story, on how I have been viewing Google.
\- AI Search is even more profitable and more useful than ordinary Google Search. AI Search also put even more distance between Google and the other search engines. Websites are also getting more advanced, PWAs, Web 3.0 etc. The ecosystem gets stronger with Google at its core.
\- Android + Google Play. So much potential Google products can be distributed through the Android platform. Mobile apps/gaming is also growing way faster than PC.
\- GCP. GCP is supported by in-house AI infra and Google's own global telecom infra. This is an insane advantage.
\- Youtube is actually gaining more viewer time and beating all other streaming services, even when it is already at pole position. Youtube has also only recently became profitable, margins will expand further.
In every of Google's core business, it is the strongest (in actual fact, monopolistic) player in the fastest growing segments. It owns the best of the best businesses that exists in this world. You gotta pay for the growth that comes with this.
People are also ignoring the sums of parts coming from non-profitable but big businesses.
\- Gemini/Deepmind alone is a trillion dollar business that has not been monetised, believe it or not. Huge optionality value here too. If AGI is achieved, the market value will literally be exponentially higher.
\- Waymo which was valued at $126 billion with a TAM of trillions
\- Other potential moonshots from its labs. There are no other Mag 7 that has the kind of innovative engine Google has.
\- Equity in Space X, Anthropic, and host of of other companies
These alone can add up to 2 trillion or more in valuation.
**TLDR:** Google is King in the tech world. Google has disciplined and very good capital allocation. It is shareholder friendly, not too conservative and has proven it will do whatever it takes to win. This startup winner mentality is very rare. People say never bet against America. In America, I will say never bet against Google. There is a reason why Google always commanded a huge premium PE of 30x ++. It is now back to its historical valuation in a stronger than ever position. It is not overvalued. BUY.
Edit: Comments are negative on GOOG. Ignore them. They are basement kids who use ChatGPT for everything, they don't eat out, don't buy stuff and don't travel. All they do is sit in front of ChatGPT and ask nerdy stuff. That's why they think Search is getting outcompeted. These sad people also think 30 PE bad and think NVO, Paypal and Nike are the best investments ever.
작성자는 구글의 핵심 사업(AI 검색, Android, GCP, YouTube)이 지배적이고 성장 중이며, 수익화되지 않은 문샷 프로젝트가 수조 달러 가치라고 주장합니다. 현재 밸류에이션(역사적 PER ~30배)이 Gemini, Deepmind, Waymo 및 기타 보유 자산의 합계 가치를 무시하여 상승 여력이 있다는 믿음. GOOGL은 강력한 펀더멘탈과 큰 옵셔널리티에 기반한 매수 의견입니다. 시장은 AI/자율주행의 미래 수익화를 과소평가하고 있습니다. 위험 요소: 규제 독점 금지 조치, Microsoft/OpenAI의 AI 경쟁, 광고 수익 둔화, 문샷 프로젝트 수익화 실패, 또는 광범위한 기술주 조정.
This Reddit post, published July 08, 2026,
features u/Delicious_Invite_127
discussing GOOGL.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.