Fed policy analysis by citi group

I watch Bloomberg religiously and today there was a guest from citi group that was asked on what would warsh do in the upcoming meeting? He talked about how oil prices fell and the inflation was only short term so this would give warsh something to hold onto and move the fed towards rate cuts and that they expect atleast 3 rate cuts this year. Like wtf? I’m no analyst but how do I know who to actually listen to? Isn’t Citi group like one of the well known names and shouldn’t they do better than this? We all know what happened today and how market reacted. A second question… what’s the point of analyst upgrades to stocks? I can’t recall exactly who but they are screaming MSFT price target is raised to 600$ and this piece of crap is just going down? This target price was 550 something last year but it never even stayed for a few hours there but just kept falling to lower 400s and now is heading to mid 300s because of rates. So what’s the point of broadcasting you upgrade a stock to no X amount? Is relying on analysts upgrades just dumb?