Pretty hawkish FOMC this afternoon. Doesn't seem great for the markets, given the unexpected degree of hawkishness.
u/BGID_to_the_moon ·
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· June 17, 2026 at 21:42
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To recap today's FOMC report, half of the voting Fed members are calling for rate hikes by end of the year. Year end rate hike odds increased from 60% to 90%, with 2 hikes now being the base case. September hike odds rose from 30% to nearly 70%.
I'll personally admit the degree of hawkishness caught me by surprise. I know inflation's been running hot for a few months, but I thought with the end of hostilities in the middle east, that members of the Fed would take more of a wait and see approach. I can fully understand why they aggressively advocate for hikes though.
The new Fed chair, Warsh, appeared to intentionally avoid the topic of high inflation and, even more clearly, wanted to avoid committing to rate hikes later in the year. As everyone knows, Warsh was handpicked by the potus and likely wants to cut rates. With the competing view points between the Fed chair and half of the voting members, I'm personally unsure where the Fed goes from here. Is it more likely that Warsh will be able to guide the majority of Fed to align with his viewpoints or will he get outvoted and forced to hike rates, even if it enrages the admin?