ADBE with math

MarkT1065 · 2026-06-12T12:41:41+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The post analyzes Adobe's (ADBE) $25 billion buyback program through 2030, showing how share reduction boosts EPS under different average buyback prices ($201 vs $300). - Author projects net income growing 8% annually to ~$13B by 2030, then calculates EPS of $42–$47 depending on buyback price, implying fair value at 10-15x PE of $420–$700. - The author is puzzled why the stock is not higher, suggesting a perceived undervaluation based on buyback math and earnings growth. **Quality assessment:** Basic financial modeling with clear assumptions, but lacks deeper competitive moat or industry analysis. It is a reasonable, straightforward valuation exercise – more than noise, less than full due diligence. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === ADBE - LONG | confidence: 0.60 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/MarkT1065 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Adobe has a $25B buyback through 2030, reducing shares by 21–30% of float, and net income is projected to grow 8% annually to ~$13B. 2. THE BRIDGE: The math implies EPS of $42–$47 by 2030, which at 10–15x PE gives share prices of $420–$700, significantly above the current ~$201 premarket price. 3. THE VERDICT: The author suggests the stock is undervalued given the buyback’s accretive effect on EPS and reasonable growth assumptions. 4. RISKS: Growth may slow below 8%; buyback execution at higher average cost than assumed; market multiples could compress further; recession or competitive pressure from AI tools. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - $25B buyback reduces shares by 21-30% - Projected EPS $42-47 by 2030 - 10-15x PE implies $420-$700 stock - Current price ~$201 signals deep value - Risk: growth miss or multiple contraction

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The post analyzes Adobe's (ADBE) $25 billion buyback program through 2030, showing how share reduction boosts EPS under different average buyback prices ($201 vs $300).
Author projects net income growing 8% annually to ~$13B by 2030, then calculates EPS of $42–$47 depending on buyback price, implying fair value at 10-15x PE of $420–$700.
The author is puzzled why the stock is not higher, suggesting a perceived undervaluation based on buyback math and earnings growth.

Quality assessment: Basic financial modeling with clear assumptions, but lacks deeper competitive moat or industry analysis. It is a reasonable, straightforward valuation exercise – more than noise, less than full due diligence.

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u/MarkT1065 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Adobe has a $25B buyback through 2030, reducing shares by 21–30% of float, and net income is projected to grow 8% annually to ~$13B. The math implies EPS of $42–$47 by 2030, which at 10–15x PE gives share prices of $420–$700, significantly above the current ~$201 premarket price. The author suggests the stock is undervalued given the buyback’s accretive effect on EPS and reasonable growth assumptions. Growth may slow below 8%; buyback execution at higher average cost than assumed; market multiples could compress further; recession or competitive pressure from AI tools.

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