Adobe has a $25B buyback through 2030, reducing shares by 21–30% of float, and net income is projected to grow 8% annually to ~$13B. The math implies EPS of $42–$47 by 2030, which at 10–15x PE gives share prices of $420–$700, significantly above the current ~$201 premarket price. The author suggests the stock is undervalued given the buyback’s accretive effect on EPS and reasonable growth assumptions. Growth may slow below 8%; buyback execution at higher average cost than assumed; market multiples could compress further; recession or competitive pressure from AI tools.
Adobe has a $25B buyback through 2030, reducing shares by 21–30% of float, and net income is projected to grow 8% annually to ~$13B. The math implies EPS of $42–$47 by 2030, which at 10–15x PE gives share prices of $420–$700, significantly above the current ~$201 premarket price. The author suggests the stock is undervalued given the buyback’s accretive effect on EPS and reasonable growth assumptions. Growth may slow below 8%; buyback execution at higher average cost than assumed; market multiples could compress further; recession or competitive pressure from AI tools.