Mark my words, 5 years time, adobe will not be higher
u/ac_AgenCy ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· June 11, 2026 at 23:54
· ⬆ 29 pts
· 💬 65 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
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Summary
The author argues that Adobe (ADBE) is not as cheap as it appears, citing growing competition and a lack of incremental growth catalysts; they expect the stock to trade at a 15 P/E on current earnings in five years, implying no price appreciation.
The post is a short, opinion-driven bearish call without detailed financial modeling or competitive analysis—more speculative noise than rigorous due diligence.
Adobe faces increasing alternatives (e.g., Canva, open‑source tools), limiting its ability to grow earnings; current P/E (~23x) may compress to 15x as growth stalls. If earnings stay flat and the multiple contracts, the stock would fall ~35% from ~$540 (June 2026) to ~$350, creating a short opportunity. Bearish on ADBE’s long‑term pricing power and growth trajectory; a re‑rating lower is likely as the market reprices the lack of catalysts. Adobe’s AI integration (Firefly, Sensei) could reignite growth; strong brand loyalty and switching costs may prove stickier than assumed; broader market rallies could lift all tech stocks.