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I just wanted to say that the Strait of Hormuz is only closed to inbound and outbound transit for US and Arabian Gulf tankers. Because of this, other nations are allowed to pass through.
When it comes to the US, we know that their massive domestic production and reserves alone are enough to push them toward near- independence regarding the local import and export of all energy and energy derivatives.
As for the Gulf nations, they haven't been able to sell a single barrel of oil or LPG cylinder for three months now.
Their economies could face a full collapse if this war lasts just six months longer.
This is highly likely given that these Gulf nations are not major producers of anything else. They are entirely reliant on oil and live in an isolated oil bubble of their own. Every country has its own design and system architects.
Meanwhile, the global economy isn't actually in a state of meltdown at all.
Look at Russia's war, where every single commodity future on earth—including oil, natural gas, all energy derivatives, food like corn, wheat, and sugar, and metals like gold, silver, copper, palladium, and platinum—skyrocketed by 50% to 200% within a single month, impacting the entire world of trade.
In contrast, I think the market will soon realize this US-Iran clown show has a minimal impact and will quickly begin treating it as a business as usual.
If you are a large portfolio holder with plenty of margin and decent leverage, short selling Arabian Gulf currencies like the Emirati dirham, Saudi riyal, and Kuwaiti dinar could make you millions if you hold the position for six months.
ThinkY about Russia's war in Ukraine; how many of us actually trade that conflict anymore?
I mean, how many of us even look up the news about Russia's war in Ukraine?
The bottom line is that the war bubble is over. Whether this conflict drags on or not, global trade has had three months to adjust, and I am sure it is all completely priced in by now.
In fact, we can see this from the actions of major institutional traders. Firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan sold off all their oil futures, at the very first announcement that the war was ending and that negotiations and deals were to follow.
That exact day was March 9th. It was a remarkable day where just one or two brokers knocked the price of oil down by 12% in a mere two hours. To this day, that stands as the largest recorded single-day institutional influence on oil prices.
So yes, unfortunately, the bubble has already burst since March 9th, but the majority of traders are still just trading the splash of that burst ,of that bubble.
If you are still basing all your trades on the war bubble, I think it is time for you to exclude this factor entirely.
Or if you are a conclusive trader who factors every global move. Then don't give it more than 20% weight , and focus on other fundamentals or news depending on what you trade.
If you are a person with a large portfolio and plenty of margin aiming for long-term profits, shorting Gulf nations' currencies is an absolute gold mine.
I used the AI for proof reading only.