An attempt to answer the question, why is oil still ~$100/bbl?

Hey, I'm an oil-nerd but also a moron so I'm almost certainly wrong, if you feel bullish after reading, take a short position, that is financial advice. Two things, firstly the current US administration has essentially blown up the oil futures market due to the unprecedented level of headline driven volatility, secondly SPR-flooding, global strategic petroleum reserves have all been drawn down to combat the shortfall in crude via the Strait of Hormuz. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has done extensive work on the market aspects of oil and their findings are clear. Oil-traders are still doing their jobs (obviously), they're just doing it in options, to stay within risk perimeters set by their firms, which simple isn't possible to comply with, trading any size in oil futures markets when any random Axios article can crash the price 5-10% in an instant. These options trades do have an impact on markets, they're just not as immidately reflected in the futures prices everyone is looking at to judge the value of a barrel of crude. SPR releases have tapered off slightly in recent weeks, although still at very high levels, the most recent EIA data saw weekly US petroleum (crude plus products and distillates) outflows of 13.6mbpd, just 100kbpd less than total US crude oil production of 13.7mbpd. This means that to sustain the massive export volumes and maintain total domestic petroleum consumption (~20.7 mbpd), the US is completely dependent on its non-crude liquids production, steady imports (~5.5 mbpd), and aggressive emergency SPR draws (~1.1 mbpd). This is not sustainable and I believe the increasing insistence of the current administration to make a deal with Iran, even if very favorable to the Iranians and very unfavorable to the US, is due to the SPR minimum levels in the US rapidly approaching. For hard reserve levels to watch there are two, the congressional one and the operational one. The DOE is allowed to pull reserves down to 252.4m barrels, to pull any more congressional approval is required, this level is set to be hit (at the current rate), in 13 weeks. The absolute operational limit, below which the salt caverns housing the SPR, risks collapse, is set at 240m barrels, this level is set to be hit (at the current rate), in 14.5 weeks. Without the US exports, there is no way to maintain supply balance without Hormuz normalization. Iran knows this too however and thus they are stalling for time, continuously increasing their demands. I believe it's a matter of weeks at most, before the current US energy subsidization of the world can no longer be sustained, reserve-draws could be tapered to drag out supply and slow the onset of outright shortages however shortages are unavoidable at this point. Even if Hormuz were to open tomorrow (which it obviously isn't), just given the veeeery slow speed (similar to a bicycle) at which tankers travel and the repositioning of tankers that has occured outside of the Strait in order to capture the increase in US exports, those tankers would take a month or more just to get back to the middle-east, let alone load the oil, sail to Asia and unload it again. Positions disclosure: I'm long a basket of oil-focused E&Ps, Coal, Fertilizer and Energy Infrastructure plays. I will happily supply my full portfolio if requested.