u/Mammoth-Water-4711 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 25, 2026 at 06:35
· ⬆ 17 pts
· 💬 15 comments
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Summary
The post analyzes the "saaspocalypse" narrative (AI agents replacing enterprise SaaS) and argues it's overblown because AI agents still need workflow control layers (permissions, approvals, audit logs).
The author believes incumbents like ServiceNow may absorb the new AI layer rather than get replaced, similar to the cyber-security reversal pattern.
The author has no position yet but is considering opening one before Q2 earnings, feeling the market narrative is ahead of actual data.
Quality assessment: Speculative but reasoned discussion; lacks hard data or financial analysis, more of a contrarian thesis.
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from january through april the market got obsessed with “saaspocalypse”
AI agents replace software. fewer seats. weaker pricing. enterprise SaaS slowly dies.
thats basically been the trade all year.
NOW down hard from highs. CRM too. IGV still nowhere near recovery.
initially i bought the thesis too tbh
but the more i look at enterprise workflows the less clean the story feels
because AI agents still need somewhere to operate
permissions, approvals, integrations, audit logs, customer records, routing between systems - none of that disappears just because the interface becomes conversational
if anything, autonomous agents may require even more control layers around them
and thats where companies like servicenow start looking interesting again
their AI products dont bypass the workflow layer. they plug directly into it.
starting to wonder if this becomes another cyber-style reversal
first the market panics on disruption
then a couple quarters later it usually turns out the incumbents didnt really go anywhere, they just start absorbing the new layer instead of getting replaced
still no position yet but im seriously considering opening one before Q2
feels like the narrative might be ahead of the actual data
AI agents require control layers (permissions, approvals, routing, audit logs) – ServiceNow’s products plug directly into these workflows. Market is pricing a "saaspocalypse" collapse for enterprise SaaS, but if incumbents absorb AI instead of being replaced, valuations could rebound sharply – similar to the cyber sector reversal. The author is considering a long position in ServiceNow before Q2, betting the narrative is wrong and Q2 results will show resilience or growth from AI integration. Q2 earnings could confirm seat loss or weakening pricing; faster-than-expected displacement by pure AI-native competitors; macroeconomic slowdown crushing enterprise IT spending.
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