u/SelfMastery__ ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 24, 2026 at 16:25
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 66 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post compares Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) as both are down YTD, focusing on forward P/E (18 vs 24) and contrasting narratives: Meta’s high CapEx spending vs. Microsoft’s SaaS slowdown fears.
Author’s thesis is implicit: Meta appears cheaper but riskier due to Zuck’s CapEx history; Microsoft seems safer but faces sector headwinds. No explicit position is stated.
Quality assessment: Moderately informed opinion/speculation with basic valuation metrics; not deep due diligence – more of a discussion starter than a rigorous analysis.
Score15
Comments66
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Both down YTD
Microsoft forward P/E is sitting around 24, while metas is around 18.
Current sentiment around meta is the crazy CapEx spending by Zuck, who just happens to have a pretty extensive history blowing away billons of dollars. CapEx hasn’t quite turned into profits just yet, at least not at the rate the street wants considering the crazy spending.
Microsoft seems a lot more safe but the SaaS apocalypse narrative has been driving this name down in the dumps despite the growth and good earnings.
What do you think? What would you pick?
Meta trades at ~18x forward P/E vs. MSFT’s ~24x, a significant discount, while both are down YTD. The market is pricing in CapEx inefficiency fears; if Meta’s spend eventually drives revenue growth (AI, Reality Labs), the low multiple offers upside re-rating. Betting on mean reversion in sentiment toward Meta’s CapEx, using valuation as margin of safety. Continued CapEx overrun without ROI, regulatory headwinds, or ad revenue deceleration could deepen losses. TICKER - MSFT - LONG | confidence: 0.55 | sentiment: +0.20 Speaker: u/SelfMastery__ Thesis: Microsoft’s forward P/E of ~24 is historically reasonable, and it has diversified revenue (Azure, Office, gaming, LinkedIn). The “SaaS apocalypse” narrative is overblown; MSFT’s embedded enterprise relationships and AI integration (Copilot) provide sticky recurring revenue, supporting long-term growth. Favor the safety of MSFT’s moat at a fair valuation, betting on resilience over speculative CapEx payoff. Broader tech multiple contraction, Azure growth slowdown, or antitrust actions could weigh on the stock.
This Reddit post, published May 24, 2026,
features u/SelfMastery__
discussing META.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.