If this AI bet fails, do these stocks become toxic or are they the ultimate value play?
u/Think_Welder_199 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· April 30, 2026 at 17:06
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 42 comments
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Summary
The post questions the outcome if massive AI capex (~$750B) fails to generate revenue, contrasting the dot-com bust (companies died) with today’s Big Tech that still has profitable core businesses (Office, Search, Instagram).
The author is torn: either these stocks become toxic due to burned investors or become “screaming buys” when the “AI tax” lifts and core earnings reassert themselves.
Quality assessment: Speculation – lacks hard data, relies on hypothetical scenario; more a philosophical debate than a rigorous DD.
Score15
Comments42
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I’ve been staring at the earnings numbers lately and they’re honestly a bit terrifying. We’re looking at Big Tech spending something like $750 billion on AI infra, with Microsoft alone projecting nearly $200 billion in spending for 2026. Every time Meta or Google announces they’re hiking their budget, the market seems to have a mini panic attack and hammers the stock.
I’m genuinely curious what the endgame looks like if this investment doesn't actually pay off.
If we wake up in a year and realize this was a massive bubble and that $750 billion isn't actually moving the needle on revenue, what do people do with these stocks? In 2000, when the hype died, the companies died because they didn't have real products. But today, if the AI front fails, Microsoft still has Office and Azure, Google still has Search, and Meta still has billions of people on Instagram.
So which way does the sentiment shift?
Do investors dump the stocks and stay away forever because they feel burned by the wasted billions? Or do people eventually breathe a sigh of relief, realize these companies are still absolute cash-generating machines in their core business, and buy the dip because the "AI tax" is finally gone?
I’m trying to decide if we’re looking at a systemic collapse of the tech sector or if this is just a massive valuation reset. Is the AI hype the only thing keeping these prices up, or would a return to a "boring" profitable reality actually make these companies a screaming buy?
PS- Formatted with AI Assistant