UAE leaving OPEC breaks the cartel (bearish oil short term)

UAE leaving OPEC breaks the cartel narrative and the market isn’t pricing it. UAE is \~12% of OPEC supply and one of the only members with real spare capacity. If they stop respecting quotas, discipline breaks and more barrels hit the market. That’s bearish for oil in the short term. Longer term, it weakens OPEC cohesion and probably increases geopolitical noise and volatility. Short term bearish, long term bullish on volatility. **Position:** short-term OTM $USO puts, adding if oil rolls over Only real bull case is this turns into actual instability and supply tightens instead.