PLTR DD, 2026

run_midnight · 2026-04-28T19:36:11+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The author performs detailed historical financial analysis of Palantir (PLTR), projecting 2026 EPS and price targets based on revenue growth, operating income, and multiples. - Thesis: PLTR could reach $270.92 by end of 2026 if it maintains a 150x PE, but could fall to $54.18 if PE normalizes to 30x. - The author discloses a short put position (sell June 18 ’26 $125 put) to fund buying more RDDT, implying they expect PLTR to stay above $125. - Quality: Well-researched DD with quantitative modeling, but acknowledges high valuation risk and dependence on continued growth. Uses historical averages and company guidance. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === PLTR - LONG | confidence: 0.65 | sentiment: +0.30 Speaker: u/run_midnight Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Author’s model projects Q4 2026 EPS of $0.5485, implying potential price of $270.92 at 150x PE (current PE ~225). 2. THE BRIDGE: Short put strategy (selling $125 puts) suggests author believes downside is limited and stock will trade above $125 by June 2026, using premium to accumulate RDDT. 3. THE VERDICT: Author sees upside potential from continued strong commercial revenue growth (guidance: >115% US commercial growth) but acknowledges high multiples could compress. 4. RISKS: Revenue misses, PE multiple contraction (could fall to $54), or loss of government contracts. Comments note need for $8B revenue to sustain high multiples. Timeframe: short-term (puts expire June 2026) Key Points: - Short put = neutral-to-bullish stance above $125 - Model projects 50%+ EPS growth QoQ - Commercial growth is key catalyst - PE compression could crush price - Author uses put premium to buy RDDT === COMMENTS SUMMARY === Top comment (by u/ai-moderator) provides a TLDR highlighting the short put strategy and wide price range. Another comment (u/dinals_fokina) dismisses the analysis as “garbage.” A third comment (u/baudinl) notes the stock needs to hit $8B revenue to justify its high multiple, focusing on commercia

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Summary

The author performs detailed historical financial analysis of Palantir (PLTR), projecting 2026 EPS and price targets based on revenue growth, operating income, and multiples.
Thesis: PLTR could reach $270.92 by end of 2026 if it maintains a 150x PE, but could fall to $54.18 if PE normalizes to 30x.
The author discloses a short put position (sell June 18 ’26 $125 put) to fund buying more RDDT, implying they expect PLTR to stay above $125.
Quality: Well-researched DD with quantitative modeling, but acknowledges high valuation risk and dependence on continued growth. Uses historical averages and company guidance.

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Unless mods delete it again... This post will examine PLTR's historical averages, operating income, and give a forecast for 2026 EPS and price targets.

First, let's see what PLTR has to say. We'll come back to this later on...

&gt;For Q1 2026, we expect: • Revenue of between $1.532 - $1.536 billion. • Adjusted income from operations of between $870 - $874 million.

&gt;For full year 2026, we expect: • Revenue of between $7.182 - $7.198 billion. • U.S. commercial revenue in excess of $3.144 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 115%. • Adjusted income from operations of between $4.126 - $4.142 billion. • Adjusted free cash flow of between $3.925 - $4.125 billion. • GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.

**Historical values**

PLTR does not disclose revenue sources in their financial statements, only providing a single revenue number. That being said, these are the numbers...

| Q | Rev | COR | OpEx |  COR + OpEx | OpInc | 
| :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: |
| Q1 '24 | 634.3 | 111.3 | 437.2 | 548.5 | 85.8 |
| Q2 '24 | 678.1 | 128.6 | 444.2 | 572.8 | 105.3 |
| Q3 '24 | 725.5 | 146.6 | 465.7 | 612.3 | 113.2 |
| Q4 '24 | 827.5 | 174.5 | 641.9 | 816.4 | 11.1 |
| Q1 '25 | 883.9 | 173.0 | 534.8 | 707.8 | 176.1 |
| Q2 '25 | 1003.7 | 192.9 | 541.5 | 734.4 | 269.3 |
| Q3 '25 | 1181.1 | 207.3 | 580.5 | 787.8 | 393.3 |
| Q4 '25 | 1406.8 | 216.0 | 615.4 | 831.4 | 575.4 |

In the past two years, per quarter, revenue has increased by 12.16%; cost of revenue has increased by 10.16%; operating expenses increased by 6.01%; in total, operating expenses and cost of revenue together, they increase by 7.25% per quarter if you remove the Q4 '24 outlier. Again, if we remove the outlier, Operating Income increases by 22.87% on average per quarter.

**Operating income**

Next, I'm going to calculate Q1 values then compare them to the forward guidance.

| Q | Rev | COR + OpEx | OpInc | 
| :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | 
| Q1 '26 | 1577.9 | 890.3 | 687.6 | 

Comparing these values to Palantir's first quarter guidance, the expected revenue we calculated is slightly higher than the forecasted revenue, by 2.7%. The operating income is calculated at $687.6 M, which is significantly lower than PLTR's forecast. (CoR + Operating Expenses = Revenue - Operating Income.) This tells us that PLTR is expecting Cost of Revenue and/or Operating Expenses to drop by ~$186.4 M. For this reason, we're going to use their forecasted COR+OpEx value, over our calculated value. We will still use our calculated revenue, as well as our calculated average value increases.

| Q | Rev | COR+ OpEx | OpInc | 
| :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | 
| Q1 '26 | 1577.9 | 703.9 | 874 | 
| Q2 '26 | 1769.8 | 754.9 | 1014.9 | 
| Q3 '26 | 1985.0 | 809.7 | 1175.3 | 
| Q4 '26 | 2226.4 | 868.4 | 1358.0 | 

Total calculated revenue of $7559.1 M, compared to $7198 M forecasted, a 5.0% difference. Total operating income for 2026 is calculated to be $4422.2 M, to Palantir's $4142 M, a difference of 6.8%. While optimistic, these values are within reason for the purposes of this experiment and I'll be using them in addition to the historical averages to calculate net income.

**Net income and EPS**

Historical values first...

| Q | interest &amp; other income | tax | NI | shares | EPS | 
| :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | 
| Q1 '24 | 29.9 | 4.7 | 111.0 | 2400.1 | 0.0463 | 
| Q2 '24 | 35.4 | 5.2 | 135.5 | 2414.7 | 0.0561 | 
| Q3 '24 | 44.0 | 7.8 | 149.4 | 2459.6 | 0.0607 | 
| Q4 '24 | *69.5* | *3.6* | *77.0* | *2528.3* | *0.0305* | 
| Q1 '25 | 47.3 | 5.6 | 217.8 | 2552.8 | 0.0853 | 
| Q2 '25 | 62.9 | 3.6 | 328.6 | 2562.9 | 0.1282 | 
| Q3 '25 | 87.3 | 3.8 | 476.8 | 2571.1 | 0.1855 | 
| Q4 '25 | 46.0 | 9.8 | 611.6 | 2573.5 | 0.2377 | 

Interest and other income has an average of $52.8 M, and increases by 13.31%; and tax has an average of $5.51 M, and increased by 27.16%. The diluted shares outstanding have on average increased by 0.6% to give us a Q1 2026 expected shares count of 2599.4. Plugging these values into 2026 gives us...

| Q | other income | tax | NI | share count | EPS | 
| :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | 
| Q1 '26 | 70.3 | 7.0 | 937.3 | 2588.9 | 0.3621 | 
| Q2 '26 | 79.6 | 8.9 | 1085.6 | 2604.5 | 0.4168 | 
| Q3 '26 | 90.2 | 11.3 | 1254.2 | 2620.1 | 0.4787 | 
| Q4 '26 | 102.2 | 14.4 | 1445.8 | 2635.8 | 0.5485 | 

The Q1 2026 EPS will be $0.3565, or an increase of 50.0% from Q4 2025.

Finally, our price targets would be...

| Q | TTM x 30 PE | TTM x 100 PE | TTM x 150 PE | 
| :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | 
| Q1 '26 | 27.41 | 91.35 | 137.03 | 
| Q2 '26 | 36.06 | 120.21 | 180.32 | 
| Q3 '26 | 44.86 | 149.53 | 224.30 | 
| Q4 '26 | 54.18 | 180.61 | 270.92 |

**Conclusion**

Palantir is currently trading at a PE of ~225, if we give it a PE of 150 **by the end of the year it could reach a new all time high of $270.92.** However, if the PE comes back to reality, it could be as low as $54.18.

That is, of course, if the trend continues. Palantir trades at high multiples due to it's ability to win large, multi-year security contracts for governments and large businesses. If they win new contracts, my targets could get blown out of the water...

Disclaimer: -5 x 18 Jun '26 125 Put, using these puts to buy more RDDT

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