The stock is down 80%. The business isn't.

No-Temporary-8222 · 2026-04-24T00:18:53+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The post discusses BellRing Brands ($BRBR), whose stock has fallen ~80% from highs while the business still generates over $2.3B in revenue and trades at cheap multiples (8x NTM EBITDA, 1.3x NTM revenue). - Author’s thesis: The market is pricing the company as structurally broken, but the core product (Premier Protein) remains on shelves at Costco, and the deterioration is driven by cyclical factors (whey inflation, tariffs, competition) rather than permanent impairment. - Quality assessment: Moderately well-researched; the author provides a framework with quarterly assumptions and risks, but the post itself is a summary linking to a detailed breakdown, leaning toward informed speculation rather than a full DD. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === BRBR - LONG | confidence: 0.60 | sentiment: +0.40 Speaker: u/No-Temporary-8222 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Stock down ~80% while revenue remains ~$2.3B; valuation at 8x NTM EBITDA and 1.3x NTM revenue suggests deep pessimism. 2. THE BRIDGE: If the business is not structurally broken and cyclical headwinds (whey, tariffs, competition) ease, the multiple could re-rate higher, providing upside. 3. THE VERDICT: A contrarian value play on a de-rated staple brand with resilient distribution and revenue. 4. RISKS: Sustained whey inflation, tariff escalation, or loss of club channel shelf space could undermine the thesis. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Down 80% from highs, cheap multiples - Revenue still $2.3B, Costco presence intact - Cyclical headwinds, not structural decay - Watch whey costs, tariffs, competitive pressure

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Summary

The post discusses BellRing Brands ($BRBR), whose stock has fallen ~80% from highs while the business still generates over $2.3B in revenue and trades at cheap multiples (8x NTM EBITDA, 1.3x NTM revenue).
Author’s thesis: The market is pricing the company as structurally broken, but the core product (Premier Protein) remains on shelves at Costco, and the deterioration is driven by cyclical factors (whey inflation, tariffs, competition) rather than permanent impairment.
Quality assessment: Moderately well-researched; the author provides a framework with quarterly assumptions and risks, but the post itself is a summary linking to a detailed breakdown, leaning toward informed speculation rather than a full DD.

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u/No-Temporary-8222 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Stock down ~80% while revenue remains ~$2.3B; valuation at 8x NTM EBITDA and 1.3x NTM revenue suggests deep pessimism. If the business is not structurally broken and cyclical headwinds (whey, tariffs, competition) ease, the multiple could re-rate higher, providing upside. A contrarian value play on a de-rated staple brand with resilient distribution and revenue. Sustained whey inflation, tariff escalation, or loss of club channel shelf space could undermine the thesis.

This Reddit post, published April 24, 2026, features u/No-Temporary-8222 discussing BRBR. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/No-Temporary-8222 · Tickers: BRBR

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