Stock down ~80% while revenue remains ~$2.3B; valuation at 8x NTM EBITDA and 1.3x NTM revenue suggests deep pessimism. If the business is not structurally broken and cyclical headwinds (whey, tariffs, competition) ease, the multiple could re-rate higher, providing upside. A contrarian value play on a de-rated staple brand with resilient distribution and revenue. Sustained whey inflation, tariff escalation, or loss of club channel shelf space could undermine the thesis.
Stock down ~80% while revenue remains ~$2.3B; valuation at 8x NTM EBITDA and 1.3x NTM revenue suggests deep pessimism. If the business is not structurally broken and cyclical headwinds (whey, tariffs, competition) ease, the multiple could re-rate higher, providing upside. A contrarian value play on a de-rated staple brand with resilient distribution and revenue. Sustained whey inflation, tariff escalation, or loss of club channel shelf space could undermine the thesis.