13 Investment write-ups to look at

u/Away_Definition5829 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · April 22, 2026 at 10:26 · ⬆ 17 pts · 💬 4 comments | View on Reddit ↗

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Summary

This post is a curated compilation of 13 investment write-ups from Substack authors, sourced from Giles Capital's weekly newsletter. It summarizes analyses of companies across the Americas, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific regions.
The author's thesis is to surface potential value investment ideas by aggregating third-party research, highlighting valuation gaps, growth drivers, and risks.
Quality assessment: Well-researched due diligence from multiple sources, but secondary compilation; provides a useful starting point for further investigation.

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Fresh round of company write-ups from Substack last week.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/)

# Americas

**Alphaseeker84** on [**Netflix**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/netflix-inc-nflx-q1-2026-results) (🇺🇸 NFLX US - US$410bn) Earnings update. Q1 revenue up 16%, operating margin at 32%, and free cash flow more than doubled to $5bn. Soft Q2 guide and Reed Hastings stepping down from the board spooked a market priced for perfection.

**Alphaseeker84** on [**BlackRock**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/blk-1q26-earnings-dive) (🇺🇸 BLK US - US$170bn) Earnings update. 8% organic fee growth through the worst market month since 2022. A proposed rule letting 401(k) plans hold private assets and a pipeline of insurance mandates sit outside consensus as multi-year earnings drivers.

**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**Intuitive Surgical**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/intuitive-surgical-a-robotic-monopoly) (🇺🇸 ISRG US - US$165bn) Dominates surgical robotics with 70-80% market share and 85% recurring revenue. Sell-side has been cutting price targets into the April 21 print; a 58x P/E leaves little room for disappointment.

**Rebound Capital** on [**MercadoLibre**](https://reboundcapital.substack.com/p/deep-dive-mercado-libre-meli) (🇺🇸 MELI US - US$89bn) Latin America's digital infrastructure play: 150m users, 26 years of data, ads growing 67% after stripping out currency moves. Down 30% on Brazil margin compression, with a base-case valuation of $2,400 against $1,830 today.

**Uzocapital** on [**Global Payments**](https://uzocapital.substack.com/p/who-am-iepisode-10) (🇺🇸 GPN US - US$20bn) Five times earnings after a 60% drawdown, despite revenue and profits both up 60% over five years. Imagine finding a 50% EBITDA-margin business with a $6.5bn buyback that could retire a third of the float by 2028.

**Rock &amp; Turner** on [**Kinsale Capital Group**](https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/interview-kinsale-capital-ceo-michael) (🇺🇸 KNSL US - US$10bn) The rare specialty insurer running a 10-point expense advantage and underwriting profits north of 25%. Book value compounds 30% annually. Q4 premium growth slowed to 1.8%, the debate, not a broken thesis.

# Europe, Middle East &amp; Africa

**Alphaseeker84** on [**ASML**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/asml-holding-nv-asml-q1-2026-results) (🇳🇱 ASML US - US$545bn) Earnings update. FY26 revenue guide raised €5.5bn to €36-40bn on surging AI memory demand. Stock fell 5% on Q2 margin optics despite the beat, with Korean memory customers already sold out for 2026.

**The Pursuit of Compounding** on [**Hermès**](https://thepursuitofcompounding.substack.com/p/hermes-q1-2026-the-selloff-of-scarcity) (🇫🇷 RMS PA - €180bn) Earnings update. Q1 grew 6% despite a 1.5-point drag from the Iran conflict. At €1,636, the share price embeds 24 years of competitive advantage and 8% perpetual growth.

**Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Hermès**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/hermes-strange-q1-2026) (🇫🇷 RMS PA - €180bn) A second take on Hermès, this time on the operational detail behind the 9% single-day drop. France down 3%, Middle East down 6% on tourist disruption. Management expects reacceleration from new store openings and leather goods.

**Sbeautiful** on [**Vusion Group**](https://sbeautiful.substack.com/p/vusiongroup-a-potential-outperformance) (🇫🇷 VU PA - €1.8bn) French leader in electronic shelf labels, transitioning from selling hardware to selling software subscriptions. Revenue grew 51%, €439m of net cash, Walmart as reference customer. Worth noting: a short-seller has raised unresolved questions on the reported cash interest income.

**Central Tendency** on [**Arlandastad Group**](https://centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-arlandastads-agroupst-accelerated) (🇸🇪 AGROUP SS - SEK 2.6bn / \~US$280m) TOP PICK Swedish airport-city developer at 40-60% below what its land has actually been selling for. Founder Taube owns 43% and is buying in the open market. An 8.7% dividend, funded by property sales, forces the market to acknowledge the gap.

# Asia-Pacific

**Farrer36** on [**Sea Limited**](https://farrer36.substack.com/p/error-southeast-asia-tech) and [**Grab Holdings**](https://farrer36.substack.com/p/error-southeast-asia-tech) (🇸🇬 SE US, 🇸🇬 GRAB US - US$49bn, US$17bn) Two takes from one author. Sea is the bullish case: Shopee's 25% GMV growth funds reinvestment in a loyalty programme while the stock trades at 10x cash earnings. Grab is the bearish side: 19x the same multiple, with incentive costs outpacing growth and Meituan circling.

**KonichiValue Japan** on [**M&amp;A Capital Partners**](https://www.konichivalue.com/p/m-and-a-capital-partners-tyo-6080) (🇯🇵 6080 JT - ¥99bn / \~US$660m) TOP PICK Japan's number-one M&amp;A advisor for small-business succession, with 45% of market cap sitting in cash. The Q1 miss is a tax-law timing issue, not a broken thesis. Strip out the cash and the operating business trades at 7-8x operating earnings.

Ideas

u/Away_Definition5829 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

MercadoLibre is Latin America's digital infrastructure play with 150m users, 26 years of data, and ad revenue growing 67% ex-currency, but stock is down 30% on Brazil margin compression. Market overreaction to near-term margins has created a valuation gap, with a base-case valuation of $2,400 versus current $1,830. Long-term growth potential is undervalued, offering a buying opportunity. Continued margin compression in Brazil, currency volatility, competitive pressures.

u/Away_Definition5829 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Sea Limited trades at 10x cash earnings, with Shopee's GMV growing 25% and funding reinvestment in a loyalty program. Stock is undervalued relative to growth prospects in Southeast Asia's tech ecosystem. Bullish case for long-term growth as market leader in e-commerce and digital services. Intense competition, profitability challenges, regulatory risks in emerging markets.

u/Away_Definition5829 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Grab Holdings trades at 19x cash earnings, with incentive costs outpacing growth and competition from Meituan circling. Overvaluation relative to fundamentals and competitive pressures create a short opportunity. Bearish due to poor unit economics and market saturation risks. Accelerated growth, successful market expansion, reduction in incentive costs.

u/Away_Definition5829 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Global Payments trades at 5x earnings after a 60% drawdown, with revenue and profits up 60% over five years, 50% EBITDA margin, and a $6.5bn buyback program. Market mispricing ignores strong fundamentals and shareholder-friendly buyback that could retire a third of float by 2028. Compelling value opportunity with catalysts from earnings growth and capital return. Economic downturn impacting payment volumes, increased competition, regulatory changes.

u/Away_Definition5829 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Arlandastad Group, a Swedish airport-city developer, trades at 40-60% below its land's actual sales value, with founder owning 43% and buying in open market. Market fails to acknowledge asset value gap; an 8.7% dividend funded by property sales forces recognition. Deep value play with catalysts from insider buying, dividends, and asset realization. Property market downturn, execution delays in development, economic slowdown in Sweden.

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This Reddit post, published April 22, 2026, features u/Away_Definition5829 discussing MELI, SE, GRAB, GPN, AGROUP. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Away_Definition5829 · Tickers: MELI, SE, GRAB, GPN, AGROUP