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Renault - Checks all the wrong boxes

u/East_Complaint_1810 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · April 21, 2026 at 21:51 · ⬆ 15 pts · 💬 26 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Summary

  • The post presents a contrarian deep-value thesis on Renault, arguing that despite a litany of structural risks (competitive auto industry, weak Europe, no moats), the sum-of-parts valuation far exceeds the current €9B market cap.
  • Key hidden assets include €7.4B net cash in the auto business, a €7.3B finance division book value, stakes in HORSE (€3.3B), Nissan (€2.5B), and an F1 team (€2.5B), plus real estate, defence, and recycling ventures.
  • The author asks for a thorough critique, implying a bullish lean but remains open to being proven wrong.

  • Quality assessment: Well-structured, data-driven DD with clear valuation breakdown and acknowledgment of risks. Not pure speculation, though some asset valuations (F1 team, HORSE) are based on third-party estimates.

Score 15
Comments 26
Upvote % 100%
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u/East_Complaint_1810 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Renault’s market cap is ~€9B, while its net cash (€7.4B) plus finance equity (€7.3B) alone sum to €14.7B, without counting stakes in HORSE, Nissan, F1, or other assets. This massive sum-of-parts discount suggests the market is pricing in worst-case scenarios (bankruptcy, industry collapse) that are unlikely given the hidden asset buffer and state support. A deep-value play where downside is partially protected by net cash and non-core assets, while upside comes from any catalyst (peace in Ukraine, EV adoption, European industry protectionism, recovery in emerging markets). Continued European economic weakness, further disruption from Chinese EV dumping, higher-than-expected losses in the auto division, write-downs on Nissan stake, or failure to monetize hidden assets.
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This Reddit post, published April 21, 2026, features u/East_Complaint_1810 discussing RNLSY. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/East_Complaint_1810  · Tickers: RNLSY