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TLDR:
Bull case: GTA6 exceeds expectations by having millions of concurrent players living in a metaverse like environment competing with each other by spending real money on gta money to purchase in game items.
Bear case: The game doesn't live up to the hype, gets delayed again, or even banned.
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My position: 1000 shares with covered calls and a cash secured put. I trade frequently and my specific position changes often, but am overall long term bullish.
Adjusted cost average is 195 per share if you include my realized profits from trading. However, without including trading gains my true cost average is currently 247.
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DD on TTWO before GTA6
Everything here are my beliefs and I'm putting my money on the line for the play I have the most conviction on. Just know I can be wrong so please don't copy my trades or invest blindly just because you saw me post about it.
I think the analysts covering this are under estimating the potential sales of this game. They are in their skyscrapers with 1 million different companies to report on, so when this relatively baby market cap video game company shows up on their desk I assume they just took the lazy route and set expectations it will sell the same as GTA 5 then moved on to more important things.
I'm on the ground floor in the front lines for this, and believe it will outperform the expectations drastically. Unlike many others, I don't think this is priced in because Rockstar has been so quiet about it and I am betting on something revolutionary to be announced that can't be priced in since its a secret.
I am biased on this due to my long position but will talk about downsides as well.
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Bull
1: GTA 6 is the most anticipated entertainment product of an entire generation. People have been waiting almost 15 years for this. Grand Theft Auto is the gold standard of video games and every game development and publishing company has their eyes on it.
May even catch bigger companies eyes, (like a META buyout offer? I know they cancelled their metaverse project, but they are still called Meta, so they could be trying to figure out how to do it right, simply just buying a video game company would have been the better move in hindsight for them)
2: I think this will sell 100 million copies within a year of release and consistently 20 million copies per year after that for a decade. I speculate this will be the highest grossing video game of all time.
3: After releasing on PS5 and Xbox I am certain they will do the double dip then release again on next gen consoles and PC (also nintendo switch 2?). Possibly even releasing a third time for the console generation after that as well.
Virtual reality and even mobile down the line is something I predict too. Basically they can keep releasing the game on newer platforms for at least 5-10 years before it starts getting stale.
4: Microtransactions: younger gamers are used to them as a standard practice in games more than the previous generation was. Kids these days are more accepting of paying for in game currencies and items.
Rockstar learned from GTA5 online and will be adding cars, yachts, planes, clothes, and other items to GTA6 online for a long time. All of these barely cost anything to produce because they aren't real, just software development fees.
What people aren't anticipating enough is the potential for this to be similar to the concept of the "metaverse" that facebook wanted to start. People are going to be living in this game, and paying real money to thrive in there. Especially showing off to others how cool they are with all the stuff they have in the game. I think this will be a multi billion dollar a year cash cow for the forseeable future.
(Here are some numbers that were leaked from a recent hack. Rockstar still makes over $1 million per day from a 13 year old game, and over $5 billion since release. I think GTA6 online will make even more.
https://kotaku.com/hackers-reveal-rockstar-earns-over-1-million-a-day-from-gta-online-2000687207)
6: Marketing hasn't even ramped up yet. You don't hear much about this game, unless its from GTA lovers. But once those trailers, gameplay showcases, and other info starts hitting, I think this game will be the most talked about subject across the internet for most of 2026.
7: Recession proof: once GTA 6 is available for purchase. I think people are going to be lining up for this and pouring money into shark cards no matter what their economic situation is.
8: Buy out candidate: Biggest publicly traded game company after Activision and EA(pending?) were bought out.
9: Lastly, TTWO's other games are selling well too and have more consistent releases. Their mobile game portfolio is growing more profitable especially.
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Neutral
Its priced in: Rockstar didn't learn anything from its decade of running GTA5 online. Doesn't pioneer anything and just releases a game that matches the hype.
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Bear
1: GTA VI Delay risk: Each delay increases the chance of something else coming out that will change the industry. Think of AI becoming good enough to make a GTA 6 clone that goes viral before GTA 6. Or another game or product that comes out of no where and captures people, like Fortnite did right before Red Dead Redemption 2 almost a decade ago.
The worst thing that can happen to TTWO is if some other form of entertainment comes out before GTA6 and makes it look like old news before its even released. This includes the AI game genie fears, that people might enjoy making and exploring those in the next generation, rather than playing traditional video games.
2: Doesn't meet expectations: Could potentially be not that good of a game and that will crater the company. Even not being the best game of all time will be disappointing due to the high expectations, and would make a significant negative impact to long term recurring spending.
3: Long cycle time: release dates between flagship games is starting to get into the 5-10 years. This is too long, despite the high quality and strong sales of the games.
4: Lower console sales: This PS5 generation has less units sold than the previous PS3/PS4 consoles and could lead to slower sales. The PS5 has also been going up in price since release due to component price increases which may hinder future console sales.
5: Payment processing hurdles: Its not super well known, but there is a underground push by transaction companies like VISA and Mastercard to not accept the purchase of certain lewd and violent games regardless of the terms of service on the merchant platform its for sale on. Its only happening to really small games but if they target GTA it could be a disaster for the company.
6: General government bans: Thailand, out of all the places, has banned Grand Theft Auto. If you go to Thailand and try to play your copy of GTA 4 you already bought on steam it will be region locked on the network. I experienced this, thats how I know. More fun things to do out there anyway.
Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and other countries have placed a ban in the past, though not at the present time.
Tajikistan has also banned it currently so if other countries for some reason decide to follow in Tajikistan's footsteps, and GTA becomes an acceptable scapegoat for violence then banned by more governments, thats terrible for the stock.
7: Low volume and liquidity: The stock itself is so unknown the bid ask spreads even for the shares are pretty wide. For options its anemic, bids can be .50c while ask can be $4.50. Zero open interest on almost the entire option chain for most strikes or expiration dates 90% of the time. Because of this, it might actually may be one of the worst stocks trade options on, but its my favorite stock so I'll deal with it.
8: Unfavorable risk adjusted returns: This one isn't one of those stocks that casually doubles, but it still gets 30% drawdowns frequently. For that reason its a high risk low reward stock.
9: Bad financials: At this point in time they have a growing net income loss for 3 years in a row.
10: Stock price has been negative since the start of 2026 and hasn't bounced back is also bearish technicals.
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My investment goal
Price target end of 2026 if GTA6 releases: $300.
For a longer term horizon, I think this one can outperform the typical 10% average annual rate of return for holding index funds. If they can really hit, I speculate a 20% compound annual growth rate for the next decade which would take it to $1600 per share at the end of 2035 (from $257 per share at the start of 2026).
If GTA6 delayed again: Dead money. Might as well just wait for release to possibly invest again.
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I think we have about 1 month left until Rockstar confirms the release date or delays it again. I'm betting on them opening pre orders and starting the marketing campaign in May.
Thats pretty much it. Let me know your opinions about this stock in the comments. Thanks for reading.