The physical oil market is screaming there is a supply shock yet equities still seem calm?

People keep pointing to the front month of Brent being around 102 dollars and acting like the market has already priced this in and has it under control. I do not believe it does. To be precise, I do not believe in the screen price we are seeing. I am talking about the physical market of oil. Reuters literally reported that the North Sea Forties for delivery of barrels immediately is at 148.87 dollars a barrel while June Brent futures are sitting at slightly over 100? Dated Brent was literally trading more than 40+ dollars above June Brent futures. That is not a calm market at all. This is just the market paying a massive premium on top of the barrels that actually exist right now. **TLDR**: The front end is screaming that there is a shortage while the paper curve we have on our screens says that traders think this war is almost over and normalization will happen. That disconnect matters because the Hormuz is still closed and it is not just some "strait" that does not matter as Trump claims (With written Twitter posts calling them psychopaths and to open the strait). 20 million barrels move through this straight per day in normal conditions and the IEA has called this the biggest oil disruption in history. Even after the emergency reserves were released, the supply-side measures alone can not eliminate the disruption. So ask yourselves: If the physical oil market is pricing an active supply emergency in, why is the broader markets still behaving like this is just another temporary scare in headlines? SPY literally went green intraday today (April 13 as I write this up) and the S&P has also rebounded hard from its March low. All the banks are already back to the usual propaganda of "buy the dip". Maybe they are right, Maybe this all cools off. But if they are wrong, this setup is screaming dangerous in every direction because what the oil market is saying right now (I'm literally informed by a petroleum engineer): Replacements of oil barrels are scarce in supply The near term supply is at risk The damage from this conflict is not fully prepared to be fixed (this is already going to cause oil be at 100 dollars plus for the remainder of the year minimum) The market is too confident that this will blow over soon. That's why I think markets are not pricing this conflict in properly. I am not calling for a Black-Monday style event guaranteed tomorrow morning, however, I do believe it is coming towards the near end of this month, and Trump intentionally pumped the markets with a false claim of desiring a ceasefire. I believe Trump wanted a PR stunt to look like he tried negotiating with Iran so he would maintain the "President of Peace" card and that Iran did not want peace and wants a "nuclear weapon" (they've been claiming Iran is 1 week away from a nuke since 1981 till today). I believe Trump intentionally pumped the markets creating a liquidity exits for his inner circle and we are about to see one of the largest crashes in history in a single day. He also is indirectly threatening China's tankers by saying he's "blockading the Hormuz" which is basically a threat to any Chinese tanker that loads up Iranian oil for those who didn't understand what he is trying to say (as I am making this post a Chinese tanker just passed through). I am saying the odds of a violent repricing look much higher today than what SPY's action suggested today. The IEA says around 20 million barrels per day normally transit the Hormuz and the March emergency release of reserves of 400 million barrels (the largest in its history) can not replace the disruption of the Hormuz. Reuters also reported that analysts now expect the oil market to run a 750,000 barrel per day deficit in 2026 vs a 1.63 million bpd surplus which we expected last September while OPEC said March OPEC+ outputs collapsed by 7.7 million bpd. On the side of equity, SPY has already been modestly higher intraday on the 13th of April while Reuters said that the SPY has rebounded nearly 8% from its lows in March. J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley literally told clients that recent weakness looks like a buying opportunity instead of a prolonged downturn. In other words the cleanest way for me to express this is: **I am putting my money where my mouth is at and opening shorts on the SPY + holding my oil positions"** **Physical markets are trading supply at an emergency, equities are still trading a "temporary" geopolitical scare, and one of them is wrong.** **NFA**. Just watching the tape. [One of my ports. I have more positions and have bought more in March and last week](https://preview.redd.it/5hb5kuc140vg1.png?width=1488&format=png&auto=webp&s=254ee5ca3629b216295048bcacfb33d78a2ca54d) [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/physical-oil-europe-hits-record-high-near-150-barrel-hormuz-crisis-worsens-2026-04-13/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/physical-oil-europe-hits-record-high-near-150-barrel-hormuz-crisis-worsens-2026-04-13/) [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-urge-buying-dip-us-earnings-stay-resilient-2026-04-13/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-urge-buying-dip-us-earnings-stay-resilient-2026-04-13/) [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-lowers-second-quarter-global-oil-demand-forecast-iran-war-2026-04-13/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-lowers-second-quarter-global-oil-demand-forecast-iran-war-2026-04-13/) Chinese Defense Ministry: ‘Chinese ships continue to move in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran, which we will respect and abide by. We expect others not to interfere in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and has opened it to us.’