14 Investment write-ups to look at

Away_Definition5829 · 2026-04-08T03:20:39+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The post is a curated compilation of 14 global equity write-ups sourced from various Substack authors via Giles Capital. - The author highlights specific deep value, special situation, and high-free-cash-flow opportunities, explicitly calling out Crocs and Zoomd Technologies as "TOP PICKS". - Quality assessment: High-quality, well-researched DD summaries. The post aggregates fundamental analysis, valuation metrics, and specific catalysts (activism, buybacks, cash distributions) rather than relying on speculation. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === CROX - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Stripping out the $738M HeyDude write-down, Crocs trades at a 6.7x P/E, generating $659M in FCF with 58% gross margins. 2. THE BRIDGE: The core business is highly profitable and cash-generative, which management is using to aggressively buy back stock (share count down 30% since 2013). 3. THE VERDICT: Long Crocs as a deeply discounted, high-margin cash cow with strong shareholder returns. 4. RISKS: Continued underperformance or further write-downs related to the HeyDude acquisition. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Highlighted as a "TOP PICK" - 6.7x adjusted P/E - $659M in free cash flow - 58% gross margins - Share count reduced by 30% since 2013 ZOMD - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Zoomd trades at 3.8x P/E and 2.5x EV/EBIT with $18.3M in net cash and zero debt, despite revenue growing 155% over 18 months. 2. THE BRIDGE: The market is severely mispricing the company's growth and pristine balance sheet due to a temporary pause in spending by two major clients. 3. THE VERDICT: Long Zoomd as a deep value microcap with massive upside potential (analyst target is ~5x current price). 4. RISKS: High client concentration risk; technical transition issues delaying client spending. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Highlighted as a

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Summary

The post is a curated compilation of 14 global equity write-ups sourced from various Substack authors via Giles Capital.
The author highlights specific deep value, special situation, and high-free-cash-flow opportunities, explicitly calling out Crocs and Zoomd Technologies as "TOP PICKS".
Quality assessment: High-quality, well-researched DD summaries. The post aggregates fundamental analysis, valuation metrics, and specific catalysts (activism, buybacks, cash distributions) rather than relying on speculation.

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Solid batch of company write-ups from Substack authors from last week.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/)

# Americas

**Hated Moats** on [**Salesforce**](https://hatedmoats.substack.com/p/salesforce-dcf-valuation) (🇺🇸 CRM US - US$153bn) DCF values the business at $264 per share, 41% above current price, assuming 10% near-term growth fading to 3% terminal. $15B in operating cash flow underpins the case, though $39.5B in debt keeps leverage elevated.

**Mulberry Financial** on [**Coinbase**](https://mulberryfinancial.substack.com/p/why-gold-is-falling-and-why-the-banks) (🇺🇸 COIN US - US$46bn) Stablecoin payments now process $20-30B daily, positioning Coinbase as the regulated gateway to digital finance. 39.6% five-year revenue growth and 18% net margins at 2.9x book, though a P/E near 37x limits near-term value.

**The Finance Corner** on [**Crocs**](https://thefinancecorner.substack.com/p/crocs-the-fashion-fad-is-still-around) (🇺🇸 CROX US - US$4.2bn) TOP PICK Strip out the $738M HeyDude write-down and this is a 6.7x P/E business generating $659M in free cash flow at 58% gross margins. Share count down 30% since 2013 through aggressive buybacks.

**Enterprising Investor** on [**MarineMax**](https://enterprisinginvestor.substack.com/p/marinemax-stock-analysis) (🇺🇸 HZO US - US$600m) Trading at 0.57x book value with an activist's $35 per share all-cash bid on the table, implying 35% upside. Blackstone, Centerbridge, and TPG reportedly circling. Interest costs ballooned from $3M to $68M since 2022.

**Winter Gems** on [**D-Box Technologies**](https://www.wintergems.com/p/portfolio-q1-2026-d-box) (🇨🇦 DBO TSX - CAD$178m) Patent-protected haptic cinema seats installed across 1,145 screens globally, with a new CEO driving 80 installations per quarter. Stock has re-rated 5x from $0.14, and the lead activist trimmed 34.5% in February.

**Wolf of Oakville** on [**iFabric Corp**](https://www.wolfofoakville.com/p/ifabric-corp-ifato-fins-review) (🇨🇦 IFA TSX - CAD$85m) 66% insider ownership and Q1 2026 guidance of $25-27M revenue (250% growth) from new Walmart and Costco medical scrubs programs. Offset by a net loss in 2025, compressed margins, and a weaker balance sheet.

# Europe, Middle East &amp; Africa

**Investing with Wes** on [**Cerillion**](https://investingwithwes.substack.com/p/cerillion-plc-cerl) (🇬🇧 CER LN - £384m) 81.5% gross margins, 93% customer retention, zero debt, and a 20% founder-CEO stake. Strong business, but 23x P/E with a 3% free cash flow yield below the risk-free rate leaves no margin of safety. Author's valuation sits 41% below current price.

**Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Judges Scientific**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/from-headwindsto-tailwinds) (🇬🇧 JDG LN - £283m) Proven serial acquirer of niche scientific instrument businesses, now 50% off its highs. Trough 2026 earnings assume zero US funding recovery, no major contract wins, and no acquisitions. £50M of acquisition firepower and 118% cash conversion suggest the worst is priced in.

**Guardian Research** on [**Schmid Group**](https://guardianresearch.substack.com/p/160-year-old-family-business) (🇩🇪 SHMD US - US$284m) The only equipment provider for a key step in manufacturing AI chip substrates, 52% family-owned with zero analyst coverage. Currently loss-making with a stressed balance sheet, though guided to &gt;€100M revenue and &gt;12% EBITDA margin for 2026.

**Almost Mongolian** on [**Zoomd Technologies**](https://www.almostmongolian.com/p/zoomd-technologies-why-its-back-in) (🇮🇱 ZOMD V - US$63m) TOP PICK 3.8x P/E and 2.5x EV/EBIT on an adtech platform that gets paid only when it delivers paying customers. Revenue grew 155% over 18 months. $18.3M net cash, zero debt. Two major clients paused spending during a technical transition; sole analyst targets C$4.00 versus C$0.84 current.

# Asia-Pacific

**Capytal Management** on [**Marco Polo Marine**](https://capytalmanagement.substack.com/p/marco-polo-marine-upcycle-incoming) (🇸🇬 MPM SG - US$400m) Offshore vessel operator and shipyard with 27% Q1 revenue growth, secured multi-year contracts, and insider buying. Benefiting from an aging fleet across Asia, though the stock has tripled from mid-2025 levels, pushing the valuation to 14.4x EV/EBIT.

**Iggy on Investing** on [**Otto Energy**](https://iggyoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-hormuz-speculation-with-a-cash) (🇦🇺 OEL AU - US$16m) Negative enterprise value. A$28M cash on the balance sheet exceeds the A$24M market cap, meaning the market values the producing oil assets at less than zero. CEO's 2% bonus on capital returned aligns incentives to distribute cash within 12 months while oil prices stay above $100.

**Altay Cap** on [**Osaka Yuka Industry**](https://altaycap.substack.com/p/nanocap-osaka-yuka-industry-4124) (🇯🇵 4124 TYO - US$14m) A ¥185B chemical company bid ¥3,201 per share for this precision distillation specialist; an activist blocked the deal and now holds 42%. Stock trades at ¥2,746, 14% below the failed bid. Zero analyst coverage, minimal daily volume. Special situation.

**Mr. Deep Value** on [**Silicon Studio**](https://www.mrdeepvalue.com/p/silicon-studio-analysis) (🇯🇵 3907 TYO - US$12m) 4.4x EV/EBIT, 6.8x P/E, and cash on the balance sheet equal to 65% of the market cap. Capital-light software and staffing business generating ¥286M annual free cash flow. Fragmented 70% free float creates activist optionality. Nintendo is 17% of revenue.

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