u/NickyBeater ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· April 07, 2026 at 20:56
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 22 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post questions whether the explosive revenue growth of Anthropic, an AI company, is adequately reflected in Amazon's stock price, given Anthropic's significant likely spending on AWS compute.
The author's thesis is that Anthropic's reported rapid ARR increase (adding ~$10B/month) should directly and noticeably accelerate AWS revenue growth, creating a positive catalyst for AMZN that the market has overlooked.
Quality assessment: Speculation. The post presents a logical hypothesis but lacks concrete data on Anthropic's actual AWS spend, the terms of their strategic partnership, or the net impact on AWS's profitability. It relies on general assumptions about AI company cost structures.
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I‘m surprised I’m not reading about this anywhere because it’s so obvious, but since Anthropic revenue is currently exploding, adding 10$bln ARR in the past month, this should have very noticeable effects on AWS. AWS is above 150$bln annual run rate, but considering that Anthropic spends somewhere from 70-100+% of their revenue directly on compute and the largest chunk of that by far should be on AWS, this will create a very noticeable acceleration even for the behemoth that AWS is. Amzn stock has not moved at all throughout the explosive past weeks of Anthropic growth and I can’t imagine that this has always been priced in. Even for the biggest Anthropic bulls this revenue growth is staggering. What am I missing?
Anthropic's reported revenue is exploding (+$10B ARR in a month), and a large portion (70-100%+) of this likely flows to AWS as compute costs. This should cause a noticeable acceleration in AWS revenue growth, which is not yet reflected in AMZN's stagnant stock price. AMZN is a direct, underappreciated beneficiary of Anthropic's success, presenting a buying opportunity before the AWS revenue acceleration becomes evident. Anthropic's revenue growth may not be sustainable or accurately reported; Anthropic may use multi-cloud infrastructure (e.g., Google Cloud) or have preferential pricing with AWS; The $10B ARR impact on a $150B+ AWS run-rate may be less material than implied.
This Reddit post, published April 07, 2026,
features u/NickyBeater
discussing AMZN.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.