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Degens, big credit to @rockcreekfreak on X for dropping these YTD North American energy equity performance charts. Oil-heavy names with exposure to crude (Permian, offshore, international) absolutely sent it while pure nat gas levered plays got wrecked as Henry Hub collapsed. Classic commodity divergence playing out in real time.
My current plays:
\- Exploration & Production names:
KOS, MUR, GPRK, MTDR, CRGY, CHRD, SM & CRK
\- Oilfield service names:
NE, SDRL, VAL
Obviously the big driver going forward is whether oil can stay bid and gain further amid the current US-Iran war and the blocked Strait of Hormuz and whether soaring energy demand in the US can help domestic nat gas wake up from its currently comatose state. My gut says the oil-weighted names in the top half still have legs if this geopolitics stays spicy, but the beaten-down nat gas stuff could rip on even a small rebound in Henry Hub. The oilfield services names will tag along with any drilling uptick as producers want to take advantage of higher oil prices as well as find new supply in geographies more unaffected by the volatility of the middle east.
That said, I’m probably missing half the picture. Hit me with the real DD, frens:
\- Anyone left in KOS or did everyone head for the exit on the 200% bounce after getting put through the wood chipper since 2023?
\- Which of my oil-weighted holdings (MTDR, CHRD, CRGY, SM, MUR) have the most torque left for 2H 2026, or are they starting to top?
\- Has nat gas finally bottomed, or is it still dead? Could CRK (and similar larger laggards) actually be coiled springs?
\- Any mid- or lower-chart names that look undervalued with strong balance sheets or hidden catalysts the street is ignoring?
\- For oilfield services: Are NE, SDRL, and VAL set up for more upside if rigs finally accelerate, helped by consolidation (RIG buying VAL), or has the services party already peaked?
Drop your thesis, balance sheet takes, price targets, or whatever alpha you’re smoking. Tell me which names you think run next and which “cheap” ones are value traps.
TL;DR: Oil smoked gas YTD - painfully obvious. Now tell me who’s actually moving next and which laggards could be the surprise moonshots.
Let’s cook, energy autists.