i spent my weekend reading 98 s&p 500 10-Ks for tariff and war risks. the results are.. weird. banks are way more exposed than oil companies
u/Upset-Commercial-661 ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· April 04, 2026 at 22:33
· ⬆ 494 pts
· 💬 146 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
Author manually reviewed "Risk Factors" sections of recent 10-K filings for 98 S&P 500 companies, focusing on mentions of tariffs, war, and geopolitical themes.
Thesis: The market is underpricing systemic geopolitical/credit risks that major banks are heavily warning about in filings. Some sectors (semis, pharma) have unexpected tariff exposure, while a few consumer/insurance names appear insulated.
Quality assessment: Speculative. Effort is notable, but methodology (exposure score calculation) is opaque and likely simplistic (e.g., keyword count). Findings may reflect standard legal caution versus unique insight.
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everyone is talking about the iran war and trump’s tariffs, but i wanted to see which companies are actually panicking in their official sec filings. i spent my entire weekend digging through the "risk factors" section of the 2 most recent 10-Ks for 98 s&p 500 companies.
i looked for 8 specific themes: tariffs, war, geopolitical, oil/energy, sanctions, supply chain, interest rates, and recession.
here is the data. some of this makes zero sense on paper, but the 10-Ks don't lie.
# the "macro risk" top 10 (highest exposure)
|ticker|company|exposure score|key risk mentions|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|MS|morgan stanley|95.6|221 total (massive geopolitical/war)|
|C|citigroup|91.2|269 total (highest volume in the scan)|
|BAC|bank of america|80.4|102 mentions|
|GS|goldman sachs|67.2|heavy institutional/trading risk|
|JPM|jpmorgan|62.1|systemic macro exposure|
|CVX|chevron|58.0|188 oil/energy mentions (obviously)|
|BLK|blackrock|52.1|asset management/global exposure|
|EOG|eog resources|50.2|142 oil mentions|
|CDNS|cadence|45.6|21 tariff mentions (semis getting hit)|
|REGN|regeneron|43.7|36 tariff mentions (surprising for pharma)|
# the "safe haven" list (the ones who don't care)
if you're looking for where to hide, these companies basically didn't even mention the war or tariffs in their risk factors:
* **PGR** (progressive): only 7 mentions total.
* **UNH** (unitedhealth): 6 mentions.
* **NFLX** (netflix): 6 mentions.
* **COST** (costco): 8 mentions.
# 3 things that surprised me:
1. banks are the real "war" stocks: i expected oil companies to be #1, but morgan stanley and citi are screaming about geopolitical risk way louder. they are terrified of credit defaults and trade finance collapsing while the market is at all-time highs.
2. the semiconductor "sanction" trap: nvda (ranked #13) and cdns have massive exposure to sanctions and tariffs. nvda has 50 mentions of "sanctions" alone. the "ai moat" is built on a very fragile geopolitical foundation. if the strait stays closed, the supply chain for chips is toast.
3. pharma is not immune: regeneron (regn) has 36 tariff mentions. i didn't realize how much their supply chain for raw materials is tied to the current trade war.
# the "so what?"
the market is pricing in a "soft landing" or a "short war," but the banks are writing 200+ page warnings about systemic collapse. either the banks are being overly cautious for legal reasons, or they are seeing a credit crunch that the retail market is completely ignoring.
i'm personally looking at costco and progressive as the only real "sleep at night" stocks right now.
what am i missing? are the banks just covering their asses with legal boilerplate, or is the risk in the financial sector a legitimate warning for the entire s&p 500?
not financial advice. i'm just a guy who spent too much time on sec edgar this weekend.
Semiconductors like CDNS and NVDA ranked high for sanction/tariff exposure in the scan. The "AI moat" is geopolitically fragile; supply chain disruption is a key risk. Sector has high fundamental growth but significant headline risk from trade wars. The market may already price in these known risks. Demand for AI chips could outweigh supply concerns.
Listed as a "safe haven" with only 7 total mentions of the scanned risk themes. Insurers may be less directly exposed to trade finance and supply chain disruptions central to the author's fears. Another potential defensive holding during geopolitical/trade volatility. Insurance is sensitive to interest rates and catastrophic events not captured in this scan. Low mention count ≠ low risk.
Listed as a "safe haven" with only 8 total mentions of the scanned risk themes in its 10-K. This suggests the company's business model is perceived as resilient to the specific geopolitical and tariff shocks the author is concerned about. A potential defensive equity position if broader market risks materialize. Low risk mentions could be due to less comprehensive legal disclosure, not actual operational immunity. Consumer discretionary spending is still cyclical.
Major banks (MS, C, BAC, JPM) dominate the "highest exposure" list with very high mention counts. The author interprets this as banks warning of systemic credit/trade collapse that the market is ignoring. Suggests the financial sector carries underappreciated tail risk, warranting caution. Bank 10-Ks are notoriously lengthy and comprehensive for legal/compliance reasons; high mention counts may be standard boilerplate and not a unique warning signal.
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