Are OXY oil reserves are still valued at about $60 per barrel?

u/Safety-International · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · April 03, 2026 at 03:52 · ⬆ 15 pts · 💬 21 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Summary

  • The author argues that Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is severely undervalued, estimating it should trade at 3x to 7x its current price based on its oil reserves.
  • By calculating the implied value of OXY's 5 billion barrels of reserves against its enterprise value, the author deduces the market is pricing OXY as if oil will remain around $60 per barrel.
  • The author expects oil to stay above $90 for years due to geopolitical conflicts, making OXY's upside potential massive compared to its downside.
  • Quality assessment: Well-reasoned speculative DD with basic but logical back-of-the-napkin math to support a macro thesis.
Score 15
Comments 21
Upvote % 83%
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Ideas
u/Safety-International Reddit r/ValueInvesting
The author is "all in on oil" and holds a basket of energy tickers including XOM, OXY, OIH, SM, and DVN. The market is not pricing in pessimistic geopolitical scenarios or escalations, creating a systemic undervaluation across the oil sector. Go long the broader energy sector as a macro play on sustained high oil prices ($90+). Macroeconomic recession destroying oil demand, or rapid de-escalation of global wars.
u/Safety-International Reddit r/ValueInvesting
OXY's current $62B market cap implies a profit of only ~$11/barrel on its 5 billion barrels of reserves, pricing oil at roughly $60/barrel. Oil is expected to stay above $90 due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, meaning OXY will generate significantly more cash flow than currently priced in. Go long OXY, as every $11 increase in crude above $60 theoretically adds another multiple to the company's intrinsic value. A sudden resolution to global conflicts causing oil prices to crash below $60, or unexpected increases in extraction costs.
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This Reddit post, published April 03, 2026, features u/Safety-International discussing XLE, OXY. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Safety-International  · Tickers: XLE, OXY