u/Individual_Buy7254 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· April 02, 2026 at 16:45
· ⬆ 24 pts
· 💬 43 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The author has liquidated their oil & LNG positions due to the risk of a sudden peace deal causing a crash, and is now fully invested in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B).
Their thesis is that Berkshire is an asymmetric bet: it acts as a hedge and safe haven during a market crash due to its massive cash pile and history of inverse correlation during panics, while also being a good long-term investment if the situation improves, supported by potential buybacks.
Quality assessment: Speculation. The post presents a reasoned, macro-driven narrative but relies heavily on recent events, short-term price action, and historical parallels rather than deep fundamental valuation. It is a strategic opinion piece, not well-researched DD.
Score24
Comments43
Upvote %76%
▶ Full Post Text
I went all in oil and lng stocks the last month since the war started, but I sold everything recently because there is a real possibility of a peace deal, and if that happens oil futures could crash hard in a single day and oil stocks follow.
But I dont think I can go full long in stocks like this is going to solve quick and easy, because oil can still go to 150$ or 200$, and a recession is not off the table. I also think the last two green days of relief rally could be a bull trap, and market can go lower if things get ugly.
Thats why I think Berkshire Hathaway is asymetric in this situation and a hedge against a market crash, because they have a record massive cash pile of almost 400B$ that they could deploy if needed.
Also when you consider that a month ago Greg Abel in CNBC said that he talked with Buffet and considered the stock undervalued at current price after It being lateral for some time and they plan to do buybacks at these prices. So if there is no recession and war ends Berkshire is still a very good investment in my opinion.
I was also looking when the stock market crashed last year with tariffs, and noticed that meanwhile sp500 went down 20% from january to april, Berkshire went up in that same period, having inverse correlation with market when market panics. And that could happen again if situation gets ugly from here, because market knows Berkshire is a safe heaven in a market crash.
After selling oil stocks, now I went all in Berkshire.
What do you think about this whole market environment? Any other stocks or assets that could do well regardless of possible outcomes?
Berkshire Hathaway has a ~$400B cash pile, management (Abel/Buffett) considers the stock undervalued and plans buybacks, and it historically rose during the market panic in early 2025. This makes BRK.B an asymmetric investment: it should hold up or appreciate if the market crashes (safe haven, dry powder) and will also perform if the market rallies (undervalued, buybacks). It is positioned as a hedge against market downturn and a good investment regardless of near-term geopolitical/economic outcomes. A deep recession could still negatively impact Berkshire's operating businesses; the historical inverse correlation may not hold; a swift peace deal leading to an oil crash may not trigger the market-wide panic the author anticipates.
This Reddit post, published April 02, 2026,
features u/Individual_Buy7254
discussing BRK.B.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.