J.P. Morgan, 1 day before the war started: "we do not anticipate protracted oil supply disruptions"
u/bearoftheyearingear ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· March 15, 2026 at 12:23
· ⬆ 55 pts
· 💬 9 comments
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Summary
The author highlights a poorly timed J.P. Morgan report predicting bearish oil prices ($60/bbl) just one day before a major war (implied US-Iran) broke out.
The author implies that JPM's assumption of "no protracted oil supply disruptions" is completely wrong, suggesting oil prices are actually spiking due to the conflict.
Quality assessment: Hindsight observation / macro commentary. It points out a major geopolitical event invalidating previous institutional bearishness on oil.
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Probably the worst prediction of 2026 so far
Article posted on 27th of February (1 day before the war started):
[https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices)
>**Oil price forecast: A bearish outlook for Brent in 2026**
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>Despite a recent spike in oil prices, J.P. Morgan Global Research expects to see Brent crude averaging around $60/bbl in 2026.
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>More recently, markets have turned bullish on oil prices in anticipation that the U.S. will take military action against Iran, with Brent trading around $10/bbl above fair value in mid-February. “But given elevated inflation and this year’s midterm elections in the U.S., we do not anticipate protracted oil supply disruptions. If military action does occur, we expect it to be targeted, avoiding Iran’s oil production and export infrastructure,” Kaneva said. “With the region’s proximity to major energy chokepoints, brief, geopolitically driven crude rallies are likely to continue, but these should eventually subside, leaving soft underlying global market fundamentals.”
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A major war broke out in the Middle East, directly contradicting J.P. Morgan's prediction of no protracted supply disruptions. Military conflict involving Iran threatens major energy chokepoints and oil infrastructure, creating massive supply shocks that drive crude prices up. Long oil/energy as the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally shifted from soft fundamentals to severe supply disruption. A rapid de-escalation of the conflict or massive coordinated releases from global strategic petroleum reserves.
This Reddit post, published March 15, 2026,
features u/bearoftheyearingear
discussing USO.
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