My prediction: Oil equities likely to raise, and the S&P will continue to slide, on the back of a sustained Strait of Hormuz closure

Despite what the people who seem to want a green SPY Monday are saying, there is not breaking news regarding a change in Iran's policy. They maintain that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to the US, Israel and allies, and this is a consistent position they have taken for weeks. Example from Mar 06: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603068768 The key term here is allies, which excludes NATO and many more. Iran has been consistently saying this for three reasons: 1. Reassure Iran's allies such as China. 2. Incentivize neutral countries, such as India, to stay neutral. 3. Incentivize US and Israeli allies to defect. In the end, social media posts cannot overcome the fundamentals of supply and demand. There is a 20,000,000 barrel a day shortfall in the supply of an inelastic commodity. Soundbytes (and particularly soundbytes that bend the narrative) won't change that. US oil equities, like USO and OXY, are likely to continue to raise on the back of sustained high oil prices and an increase of the price on the tail end of the futures curve. The S&P, weighted toward energy hungry AI companies who are also dependent on energy hungry semiconductor companies, will continue to slide. That means SPY, TSM, etc.. Edit: As a disclosure, I am long OXY Mar, Apr and June call options, and I have conviction in my position.