The biggest release of emergency oil stockpiles in history was announced. Why crude may keep rising

The oil market sent a clear signal this week that a massive release of stockpiled crude by the U.S. and its allies is nowhere near enough to address the unprecedented supply disruption triggered by the Iran war. The explanation is simple - tankers are under attack in the Persian Gulf, the critical Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed, and Iran’s new supreme leader has vowed to keep the trade chokepoint shut. The oil supply disrupted by the war is far larger than the stockpiles the IEA can release daily. As a consequence, the action will have limited impact on the trajectory of oil prices. The U.S. will release 172 million barrels over a 120-day period. This implies 1.4 million barrels per day, which is just 15% of the supply lost due to the Hormuz closure. It takes 13 days for the barrels to hit the market from President Donald Trump’s authorization. [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/14/iran-war-iea-oil-stockpile-spr-strait-hormuz.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/14/iran-war-iea-oil-stockpile-spr-strait-hormuz.html)