Revenue collected from tariffs could be “virtually unchanged” in 2026.
u/Progress_8 ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· February 21, 2026 at 13:30
· ⬆ 199 pts
· 💬 51 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post discusses the economic fallout of a Supreme Court decision on tariffs, suggesting that despite the ruling, overall tariff revenue will remain "virtually unchanged" in 2026. This is due to the administration's use of other trade authorities (Section 122, 232, 301) to impose new global tariffs.
The author highlights that any potential tariff refunds are likely to benefit corporations ("ultimate corporate welfare") rather than consumers, as companies may have already absorbed the costs or passed them on.
Quality assessment: This post is a mix of news reporting and speculation. It summarizes a news article about comments from a political appointee (Bessent) but lacks deep, independent financial analysis. The comments add political context and counter-arguments but do not contribute to a structured investment thesis.
Score199
Comments51
Upvote %88%
▶ Full Post Text
* The amount of revenue affected by the Supreme Court’s decision is closer to $130 billion, significantly lower than the predicted $175 billion.
* The refund process could last from months to years long mess.
* Companies could be the ones to benefit as Bessent cited a that the Chinese supplier cut its price for an American importer, with the importer then paying the tariff but keeping the product’s final price tag mostly unchanged. Any refunds from tariffs would amount to “ultimate corporate welfare” and would see no benefit flowing to the consumers.
* Tariffs will be “virtually unchanged” in 2026, despite the ruling due to the use of Section 122 authority, combined with potentially enhanced Section 232 and Section 301, which will result in virtually unchanged tariff revenue as per Bessent. A new baseline duty of 10% global tariff on foreign goods was imposed yesterday under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. It is set to take effect Feb. 24 at 12:01 a.m. Washington time and currently has a 150-day limit, at which point Congress must step in.
(Addendum: Trump has raised the limit allowed by Section 122 to 15% global tariff as of this morning.)
* The administration also called on its trading partners to abide by the IEEPA tariffs and expected that they would honor their previous deals. He noted that the Supreme Court had reaffirmed the President's right to a complete embargo, which could pose a "draconian alternative" for other nations.
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bessent-says-tariff-refund-ultimate-223942102.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bessent-says-tariff-refund-ultimate-223942102.html)