The hyperscalers are like the Five Families of the Godfather

This has been a rough three month stretch for mega cap tech, and more specifically, for the hyperscalers. While I remain bullish on most of them, there is increased risk that comes with this capex, which is much larger than anyone could have foreseen several years ago. Investing requires a consideration of not only the upside potential, but also the downside risk. The key question is whether the hyperscalers are investing so aggressively because they see a golden opportunity, or if they have been dragged into a war of reckless escalation to protect their turf. This situation actually closely parallels the Five Families of the Godfather: - Google: Corleone family. With multiple Nobel laureates, landmark academic papers (including the original transformers paper), an impeccable balance sheet, and the highest net income of any company, Alphabet is the smartest and strongest of the five families, but they were the first to have their turf attacked. - OpenAI: Virgil "the Turk" Sollozzo. The newcomer who caught everyone by surprise, but he really works for Barzini and Tattaglia. - Microsoft: Barzini family. Formerly the strongest of the families, but they are linked with OpenAI, and for better or worse, their fates are believed to be linked. - Oracle: Tattaglia family. They are held in poor regard due to their reputation as pimps. They look like they are OpenAI's main partners (Project Stargate), but they are too weak to be taken seriously and really work for Barzini. - Amazon: Stracci family. Weaker than the Corleones and Barzinis, but a real hyperscaler. They made their money initially in trucking. - Meta: Cuneo family. Somewhat in the background because they don't generate revenue from the cloud. The Five Families War has escalated with everyone heading straight to the mattresses. Will this continue to escalate with ever diminishing returns on capex, or will the situation de-escalate at some point?