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I posted this yesterday. I really effed up and got the ARPU for META wrong. The new reasonable fair value is $108. However, I m leaning in between the Reasonable Very Optimistic Scenario now because I think 65 dollars is tad bit low for 2030.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/redditstock/comments/1qylso9/enough\_with\_the\_opinions\_here\_is\_the\_actual\_math/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/redditstock/comments/1qylso9/enough_with_the_opinions_here_is_the_actual_math/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
The ARPU assumption should be cut by half because I forgot to take into account META has 2 platforms, so its ARPU is actually coming from 2 platforms.
I should have suspected something was wrong, it was higher than I thought. I apologize for the error.
However, since the ARPU figure is based on 2025, and completely discounts future ad market growth until 2030, you can make your own adjustment to get a higher ARPU by 2030. However, i m not banking on that. To make it clear, I will put in simple english what i mean by this:
**My Scenario:** Reddit will achieve 33% of META's 2025 ARPU by 2030
**The other possible scenario:** Reddit will achieve 33% of META's 2030 ARPU by 2030
I chose the first scenario and i m not banking on the second.
Here is the new valuation table, all other assumptions remain the same.
|\--- US SEGMENT ---|Bear Case|Reasonable Case|Very Optimistic|Ultra Bull|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|US DAU (million)|60|60|60|60|
|US ARPU|$40|$65|$99|$198|
|US Revenue (million)|$2,380|$3,927|$5,950|$11,899|
||||||
|\--- EU SEGMENT ---|||||
|EU DAU (million)|30|30|30|30|
|EU ARPU|$14|$23|$35|$70|
|EU Revenue (million)|$422|$697|$1,056|$2,112|
||||||
|\--- ROW SEGMENT ---|||||
|ROW DAU (million)|70|70|70|70|
|ROW ARPU|$4|$6|$9|$18|
|ROW Revenue (million)|$249|$410|$622|$1,243|
||||||
|\--- VALUATION ---|||||
|Total Revenue as of 2030 (million)|$3,051|$5,034|$7,627|$15,254|
|5 year CAGR Growth (2025 - 2030)|6.73%|17.97%|28.19%|47.26%|
|Net Margins|30%|30%|30%|30%|
|Total Profit as as of 2030 (million)|$915|$1,510|$2,288|$4,576|
|PE Ratio|18|23|25|28|
|2030 Market Cap (million)|$16,475|$34,734|$57,204|$128,137|
|Jan 2026 Mkt Cap (PV) (million)|$11,212|$23,640|$38,932|$87,208|
|PV of Cumulative FCF + Net Cash (million)|$1,595|$2,170|$2,845|$4,602|
|Fair Value per Share|$53.70|$108.23|$175.18|$384.98|