No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
The author does not explicitly name SOXX, and the thesis is a general market observation rather than a specific investment judgment on an asset.
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Recent software-led moves weighing on
leading AI chip stocks appear internally inconsistent.
Price action implies AI capex is deteriorating to the point of weak ROI and unsustainable growth, while simultaneously suggesting AI adoption will be so pervasive and productivity-enhancing that longstanding software workflows and business models become obsolete.
Both outcomes cannot occur at once.
In several respects, the current indiscriminate selloff resembles the DeepSeek-driven decline of Jan ’25, which ultimately proved unfounded and was followed by higher capex and accelerating AI token growth ('25 CapEx grew 69% y/y vs. a 20% - 30% original forecast according to Bank of America).