First Solar is Beat Up, Undervalued, and Will Likely Beat Earnings

Hey y’all, I’m a long-time holder of Nextpower (formerly Nextracker). I bought around the IPO and have DCA’d a small portion of my paycheck ever since. It’s my largest holding and represents \~15% of my portfolio. (Incredible company and worth checking out.) Over that same period, I’ve also swing-traded First Solar. First Solar is meaningfully more volatile and less consistent when it comes to meeting expectations, but Nextpower’s recent blockbuster earnings call has turned me increasingly bullish on First Solar as well. First Solar’s recent issues have largely stemmed from complex manufacturing hiccups, not demand. Last quarter, they missed revenue expectations due to manufacturing failures at two U.S. glass suppliers. This forced a slowdown at their Alabama facility and resulted in roughly 200 MW of lost production. Management has since stated that this bottleneck has been resolved. More importantly, their massive new Louisiana facility began producing modules in July 2025, several months ahead of schedule. A factory opening early is one of the strongest signals you can get that engineering, operations, and supply chain execution are working. To me, that suggests their issues were isolated external disruptions, not internal incompetence. Nextpower just reported a blowout quarter, beating consensus top and bottom line by nearly 20% and raising forward guidance. In that report, management noted that 81% of revenue came from U.S. utility-scale solar projects. This matters because Nextpower and First Solar have a long-standing technical partnership designed to ensure their products work together. First Solar’s thin-film modules (Series 6 and Series 7) have unique mounting requirements which are different form factors, glass-on-glass construction, and specialized handling. Nextracker developed customized versions of its flagship NX Horizon tracker to accommodate First Solar modules, including tailored clamps and rails that significantly speed installation. Both companies are the leading U.S.-headquartered manufacturers in their respective niches. Nextracker for tracking systems and First Solar for utility-scale panels. As a result, U.S. developers frequently pair them to meet domestic content thresholds required for federal tax incentives. If developers are paying up for domestically produced trackers, they are very likely also choosing domestic panels (i.e., First Solar) to reach the 40% domestic content threshold needed for the additional 10% ITC adder. Nextpower raising guidance also signals that higher interest rates and financing delays aren’t killing nearly as many projects as feared. And here’s the disconnect. While Nextpower is up \~33% YTD, First Solar is down \~18%, despite confirmed demand and newly expanded manufacturing capacity. First Solar is currently trading at valuation multiples typically reserved for much slower-growth or structurally risky businesses: \  • Forward P/E: 9.9 • PEG Ratio: \~0.3 \  At the same time, the balance sheet is strong. Gross margins sit around 40%, profit margins near 28%, and the company holds substantial cash with minimal leverage. So to wrap it up: what I see is Nextpower validating a strong U.S. utility-scale solar macro environment, while the largest U.S. utility-scale solar panel manufacturer trades at what looks like distressed valuations, despite expanding capacity, improving execution, and solid financial health. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. First Solar is not the most well-run company, and execution risk remains. That said, in my opinion, the setup favors an earnings beat and a healthy run from here.