Opinions on current portfolio and overall thesis

AI Summary

A young investor presents a concentrated portfolio with long theses on GOOGL, AMZN, and NFLX, plus defensive holdings V and JPM, while flagging AI-hype and AMZN CapEx concerns.

GOOGL — LONG Author views GOOGL as their highest-conviction holding, citing the strongest moat through Gemini, YouTube, Search, and Cloud. They trimmed the position from about a quarter of the portfolio to fund NFLX and bonds, but retain a core stake. The main stated risk is broad AI-hype overvaluation, which prompted the trim.

One of my first ever investments, the one company I most believe in. Possibly the biggest and most successful moat in current times (Gemini, Youtube, Search, Cloud etc).

AMZN — LONG Author is less convinced on AMZN but still believes AWS is a cash-generating machine and that the company has been undervalued relative to what it offers. The stated risk is massive CapEx that they cannot justify, and they plan to wait for a rebound before trimming exposure. No specific catalyst or time horizon is given.

Less convinced on this one however I still believe AWS is a giant generating cash machine and It's been a bit undervalued for a while now for what it can offer.

NFLX — LONG Author is long NFLX because they believe its catalogue and industry moat can deliver value, regardless of whether Netflix buys WBS. The position was funded partly by GOOGL trim proceeds and short-term bonds. The stated risk is that its own shows are mostly poor, though they see catalogue and moat as more important.

Regardless of whether Netflix buys WBS or not I believe its a great company which can offer great value, not by its own shows (most of them are garbage) but by its great catalogue and moat in the industry.

Score 1

Comments 4

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Hi all, I'm a young (21) new investor. I have been learning about investing for some time now, saving money and waiting to gain enough knowledge of some concepts before creating a portfolio mindlessly and just burning my money. About a year ago (early 2025) I started investing and after some tweaks I would like to hear your opinions about it and changes I want to make or add. I will only explain my thesis on the top 3 stocks to not make this post too long as the portfolio is based around them and the rest are just defensive/hedge. Heres the portfolio:   
  
GOOGL(17.16%)- One of my first ever investments, the one company I most believe in. Possibly the biggest and most successful moat in current times (Gemini, Youtube, Search, Cloud etc). Like I mentioned earlier I've been here for some time and by now I've made enough profits (70%+) of this that I've decided to trim it a bit (was 1/4 of my portfolio) and with those profits I bought some of NFLX and some bonds.    
AMZN(12.55%)- Less convinced on this one however I still believe AWS is a giant generating cash machine and It's been a bit undervalued for a while now for what it can offer.  
NFLX(12.67%)- Regardless of whether Netflix buys WBS or not I believe its a great company which can offer great value, not by its own shows (most of them are garbage) but by its great catalogue and moat in the industry.  
V(12.22%)  
TA125-10.58%  
JPM-8.55%  
McD-7.63%  
JNJ-6.32%  
Bonds-12.32%

I tried not to over diversify and at the same time concentrate just enough in the shares I believe can produce good value. However I do have some thoughts/concerns:  
\-I started typing this post before Amazon published their report and after seeing their massive CapEx I'm thinking of waiting for the stock to rebound and then trim a bit. While I do believe in the overall value of the company I just can't see any justification for that amount and so would like to limit my exposure.   
\- I believe the whole topic of AI and companies that rely purely on it are just overvalued, yes it seems that the market has recently realized it and started pulling back but I still believe that investing in the "AI hype" can be risky and even dangerous and so I'm trying to avoid companies that rely on it. Thats why I sold some of my GOOGL shares, didn't buy on META even though its a good business overall and was fairly priced not long ago and don't trust AMAZON CapEx.   
\-Perhaps I have put too much weight in Visa, I bought this a few months ago purely for its reliability and hedge   
\- I bought JPM because I wanted a defensive stock to my portfolio and thought that one of the best run banks in the world can be a good addition however I admit that having both JPM and Visa can be too defensive especially considering their combined weights   
\- Lastly I have a good amount in short term bonds which I deploy when I see a great opportunity (like Netflix) 

I would like to learn from you guys about what mistakes I made in my thesis/allocations or what new stocks should I add etc, comment down here or DM me. Please remember I don't have much experience however I'm always willing to learn and get better. 

Ideas

u/smily260 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Core long with strong moat; trimmed on AI-hype valuation risk

Author views GOOGL as their highest-conviction holding, citing the strongest moat through Gemini, YouTube, Search, and Cloud. They trimmed the position from about a quarter of the portfolio to fund NFLX and bonds, but retain a core stake. The main stated risk is broad AI-hype overvaluation, which prompted the trim.

u/smily260 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

AWS cash machine but CapEx risk; may trim

Author is less convinced on AMZN but still believes AWS is a cash-generating machine and that the company has been undervalued relative to what it offers. The stated risk is massive CapEx that they cannot justify, and they plan to wait for a rebound before trimming exposure. No specific catalyst or time horizon is given.

u/smily260 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Long on catalogue and moat, not original shows

Author is long NFLX because they believe its catalogue and industry moat can deliver value, regardless of whether Netflix buys WBS. The position was funded partly by GOOGL trim proceeds and short-term bonds. The stated risk is that its own shows are mostly poor, though they see catalogue and moat as more important.

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Ideas

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