This isn't over 'not by a long way', says Paul Sankey on disruption in oil market

Summary

• The market is prematurely pricing in a resolution to Middle East shipping disruptions based on political rhetoric, ignoring the structural damage already done to global supply chains.
• The risk premium on oil has permanently increased due to higher insurance costs, longer transit times, and the unprecedented vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a hard $60 price floor.
• A hidden, second-order crisis is brewing in Taiwan; a lack of LNG and helium imports, combined with shuttered nuclear plants, threatens to severely disrupt global semiconductor production within months.
• Major oil companies like Exxon and Chevron face a forced strategic pivot, as they must reconsider deploying capital into newly vulnerable Middle Eastern projects like Iraq.