Is the ‘crypto winter’ thawing? ETF managers weigh in.
Speakers
Summary
- Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are exhibiting low correlation to both traditional risk assets (equities) and safe havens (gold/silver) during geopolitical conflicts.
- The crypto market is likely in the bottoming process of its "crypto winter," supported by regulatory clarity and institutional adoption (e.g., tokenization).
- Active management in crypto has historically struggled to beat Bitcoin's performance, making market-cap-weighted index approaches more attractive for diversified exposure.
- Stablecoins are seeing explosive growth, though 80% of their current use case remains trading other cryptocurrencies rather than real-world purchases.
- Historical patterns during military conflicts suggest that initial spikes in oil and dips in equities tend to reverse once the initial shock fades.
Trade Ideas
"Military conflicts, we know the drill. It's oil's going to go back down and equity is going to go back up. That's what's going to happen." Geopolitical military conflicts often cause a temporary fear-driven spike in oil prices and a dip in equities. Once the initial shock fades and if supply isn't materially disrupted, historical patterns dictate that oil premiums deflate and equities recover their losses. SHORT oil and LONG broad equities to fade the initial geopolitical panic. The conflict could escalate and disrupt actual oil supply chains, causing oil to remain elevated and equities to suffer prolonged drawdowns.
"Not only do they have dimminimous correlation with equities, but they also have extremely low correlation with gold and silver... the diversification story really holds in this current environment." Because Bitcoin exhibits low correlation to traditional risk assets and safe havens, it serves as a unique portfolio diversifier. During geopolitical conflicts where equities fall, holding non-correlated digital assets mitigates overall portfolio volatility and improves risk-adjusted returns. LONG Bitcoin as a non-correlated digital asset and store of value. The non-correlation thesis could break down during severe liquidity crunches, causing Bitcoin to sell off alongside equities.
"We like to kind of express ourselves with BITW that basically is 3/4 Bitcoin and then it's a little over 10% Ethereum and then you get a sprinkling of Solana and Link inside of there." Active managers in the crypto space have a very difficult time beating Bitcoin's performance. Therefore, a market-cap-weighted index approach provides optimal exposure to the broader crypto ecosystem's growth without the drag of high-turnover, underperforming altcoin trades. LONG BITW to gain diversified, index-like exposure to the major cryptocurrencies while avoiding the pitfalls of active management. Altcoins within the index (ETH, SOL, LINK) could underperform Bitcoin, dragging down the fund's relative performance compared to a pure BTC allocation.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published March 09, 2026, features Simeon Hyman, Kim Arthur discussing USO, BTC, BITW. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Simeon Hyman, Kim Arthur · Tickers: USO, BTC, BITW