Ideas
Dollar index likely to weaken further
The US dollar index is likely to weaken again this year. Last year saw the first dollar weakness in over a decade, and that trend can continue because US credibility is under pressure, the Fed is effectively supplying liquidity through short-term bill purchases, the Trump administration is pushing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to release liquidity, and US debt interest costs make lower rates and currency debasement likely. At least two rate cuts are possible.
Won likely range-bound with capped upside
The Korean won is fundamentally undervalued and USD/KRW is likely to stay range-bound. A break above 1,500 is unlikely without a special shock, while a move into the 1,200s is also unlikely; if the won strengthens, the pair may fall only to the mid-1,300s. Dollar-index weakness, US fiscal and rate-cut pressures, and already-reflected Korean liquidity and US investment issues limit one-way won weakness, so FX should not drive foreign investors out of Korean equities.
Korean chip duo earnings outpace prices
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are the core Korean AI semiconductor IDM beneficiaries and were late starters versus Micron. Their combined operating profit has surpassed 250 trillion won, with Samsung about 150 trillion and SK hynix about 115 trillion, and could reach 300 trillion in 2026, outpacing their stock-price gains. SK hynix trades below 10x P/E, and Samsung likely would too if 150 trillion won earnings materialize. Memory shortage and foundry normalization expectations support the group.
Korean stocks attractive versus US market
Korean equities are more attractive than US equities. Although the KOSPI has already risen above 4,800 and market returns are polarized, growth with an additional alpha driver remains the preferred area. Foreign investors are unlikely to leave Korea because Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings are rising rapidly while valuations remain low, and government corporate-governance reform and delisting of weak companies can support a re-rating and reduce money burning in speculative stocks.
Prefer KOSPI over KOSDAQ in January
January should be focused on earnings rather than biotech or KOSDAQ. With record earnings expected, the KOSPI large-cap market is more favorable than the KOSDAQ, so investors should favor KOSPI over KOSDAQ during the earnings season.
Biotech is a year-long hold
The Korean biotech sector has been oversold and may be in the process of finding a bottom rather than immediately starting a new rally. It is still a sector to hold over the year, but January should focus on earnings, so investors should wait until around the end of earnings season before increasing biotech exposure.
Hold Korean shipbuilders through the year
Korean shipbuilders are a year-long holding. Earnings and orders should support the downside, while concrete US Navy project orders can drive a level-up. With China excluded from the US Navy market, Korea and Japan should share the opportunity; winning even about 50% would also open the MRO market, creating recurring revenue, a larger market, and more stability than the commercial-ship cycle. Margins on US Navy orders are attractive.
This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published January 16, 2026,
features Lee Young-hoon
discussing DXY, USD/KRW, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, EWY, KOSDAQ, Korean biotech sector, Korean shipbuilders.
7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Lee Young-hoon
· Tickers:
DXY,
USD/KRW,
005930.KS,
000660.KS,
EWY,
KOSDAQ,
Korean biotech sector,
Korean shipbuilders