FedWatch's Ben Emons reacts to shake up in Fed Chair race

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 16, 2026 at 22:56  |  5:22  |  CNBC
Speakers
Ben Emons — Chief Investment Officer and Founder, FedWatch Advisors
Melissa Lee — Host, Fast Money

Summary

Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors reacts to the shake-up in the race for the next Fed chair, with Kevin Warsh emerging as front-runner. Emons argues Warsh's hawkish balance-sheet stance can push long-term Treasury yields higher even if the Fed resumes rate cuts. A Fast Money host says Fed independence concerns support a bullish gold view.

  • Kevin Warsh is seen as the new front-runner for Fed chair.
  • Warsh is viewed as more hawkish on the Fed's balance sheet than Kevin Hassett or Rick Rieder.
  • Treasury yields rose as markets reacted to the Fed chair race.
  • Ben Emons expects the Fed to resume rate cuts but sees long-term rates rising.
  • Fed independence and credibility concerns are cited as a reason to be bullish gold.
  • Gold and the dollar were noted as assets sensitive to the Fed chair uncertainty.
Ideas
Ben Emons Chief Investment Officer and Founder, FedWatch Advisors 0:59
Long-term Treasury yields rise on hawkish Warsh.
Kevin Warsh is now the front-runner for Fed chair and is seen as more hawkish on the balance sheet, having argued the Fed used its balance sheet the wrong way and effectively gave the government free fiscal stimulus. Markets are trading the next Fed chair, and if Warsh is chosen, his hawkish tone should push Treasury yields higher. The 10-year yield popped while the 2-year rose less. Even though the Fed will likely resume rate cuts, with market odds implying May or later, if the administration pushes lower rates to boost the economy and investment, long-term rates can still rise.
Melissa Lee Host, Fast Money 2:20
Bullish gold on Fed independence concerns.
Fed independence and credibility concerns are a reason to stay bullish gold. Earlier this week, markets saw moves in gold and the dollar that were sensitive to the Fed chair race, and although gold did not move much today, the broader uncertainty supports the metal.
Up Next

This CNBC video, published January 16, 2026, features Ben Emons, Melissa Lee discussing 10-Year Treasury Yield, GLD. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ben Emons, Melissa Lee  · Tickers: 10-Year Treasury Yield, GLD