SpaceX Earnings Fallout, Kalshi Talks NY Lawsuit | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/5/2026

Summary

This episode covers SpaceX's post-earnings selloff driven by heavy AI spending and a massive lockup expiration, with Bloomberg Intelligence's Mandeep Singh discussing the stock's near-term pressure and Musk's ambitious targets. AlphaSimplex's Katie Kaminski gives a cautious view on bonds, suggesting the 10-year yield could ease on geopolitical calm and potential Fed cuts, while warning the 60/40 portfolio remains broken. G Squared founder Larry Aschebrook details his $2.3 billion fundraise for secondaries, expects rate hikes, and urges caution on current AI valuations. The broadcast also touches on Kalshi's legal battle with New York over prediction markets.

• SpaceX shares fall 11.8% after disclosing higher-than-expected AI spending and ahead of a $101 billion insider lockup expiration.
• Mandeep Singh sees further selling pressure from the float increase and questions the feasibility of Elon Musk's 10-gigawatt AI capacity goal.
• Katie Kaminski says the 10-year Treasury yield could drift toward 4% later this year if geopolitical risks ease and the Fed eventually cuts rates, but remains neutral overall.
• She highlights the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio still faces challenges because positive correlations reduce diversification amid inflation and geopolitical risk.
• Larry Aschebrook's G Squared closed a $2.3 billion seventh flagship fund focused on growth-stage secondaries, citing a shift to deferred-share transactions.
• Aschebrook expects interest rate hikes in the fall and winter, which he argues will benefit secondary market opportunities, and warns that AI valuations are overheated and FOMO-driven.
• Kalshi's Robert DeNault defends the platform against New York's gambling lawsuit, arguing it is a federally regulated exchange, not a casino, and details its enforcement efforts against manipulation.