Katy Kaminski

Speaker notes Asia has taken an 8-10% drawdown and that China, "which does not have the inflation concerns you would see in Japan or Australia," could present "buying opportunities." As a major oil importer, China benefits disproportionately from lower oil prices, easing inflationary pressures. Its relative macroeconomic stance (less concern about inflation) allows it more policy flexibility compared to other regional economies now facing an oil shock. Direction is LONG as it is a relative value play within Asia, poised to benefit more from the ceasefire's deflationary impact and recent slightly better data. China's domestic economic troubles outweigh the benefit of lower commodity prices; the ceasefire fails.

Kaminski states the US dollar is the only asset acting as a safe haven in this conflict, unlike last year, and its strength is supported by the pricing out of Fed rate cuts. In an environment of geopolitical risk and a Fed on hold, the dollar offers stability and yield relative to other currencies. The dollar is likely to remain strong as long as the conflict persists and the Fed's stance remains hawkish relative to expectations. A sudden, dovish pivot from the Fed or a rapid de-escalation in the Middle East.