Can Oman Reach a Deal With Iran to Open the Strait?

Summary

Former Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf discusses the potential Oman-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz, expressing skepticism toward President Trump's 'last chance' rhetoric. She argues that any near-term deal will only reset negotiations and that reaching durable arrangements by November is exceptionally difficult. Leaf also assesses Iranian confidence, US deterrence credibility, and the limits of military tools, highlighting how the negotiating team's real estate mindset hinders progress.

• A 60-day Strait of Hormuz deal may be close, aimed at creating more durable arrangements but not addressing the nuclear program.
• Leaf dismisses the idea of a 'last chance' for Iran, expecting diplomacy to continue regardless of threats.
• Iranian leadership sees US pressure rising faster and is confident enough to wait at least until November.
• US missile depletion and political clock reduce Washington's leverage in negotiations.
• Houthi threats to target Saudi energy infrastructure add volatility, but no Red Sea deal is in sight.
• The US negotiating team's real estate deal background hampers complex political and security talks.
• Durable agreements on the Strait before the November elections are possible but exceptionally difficult.