Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #517
Speakers
Erik Townsend
— Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Summary
In this Trade of the Week postgame, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna review uranium, gold, oil, copper, the dollar, and equities. Patrick presents a Cameco (CCJ) February 140/150 bull call spread as the trade of the week to express uranium miner momentum with defined risk. They debate whether the dollar is bottoming or breaking down, whether the S&P can push higher before correcting, and whether parabolic gold/silver and hot commodities need consolidation.
- Patrick recommends a February 2026 CCJ 140/150 bull call spread for uranium miner exposure.
- Erik remains overweight uranium miners and uses an S&P put spread as a hedge.
- Patrick is tactically bullish the S&P short term but sees systematic triggers below 6,800.
- Erik looks for a DXY bounce; Patrick expects further dollar downside toward 90.
- Erik's WTI Dec 2026/Dec 2027 calendar spread is working and may have more room.
- Patrick sees oil squeezing to $70 on Middle East risk premiums.
- Gold and silver are parabolic; Patrick expects exhaustion/consolidation and buyable dips.
- Copper and uranium futures break out, with upside targets in play.
Ideas
Overweight uranium miners for 2026 upside.
Erik agrees with Justin Huhn's 2026 uranium miner outlook and is extremely overweight uranium miners; he expects them to end 2026 much higher than they started. He notes most smaller uranium miners lack liquid options chains, so he favors expressing the bullish view through more liquid mining shares with call spreads or other bullish options structures, while acknowledging they will likely take a hit if the S&P corrects.
Use CCJ bull call spread.
Rather than forcing options structures into illiquid small uranium miners, Patrick recommends expressing the uranium miner momentum view through Cameco (CCJ), the most institutionally tradable proxy. With CCJ at $134, buy the Feb 20, 2026 $140 call and sell the $150 call for a $3 net debit (140/150 bull call spread). Max loss is $3; max profit is $7 if CCJ is at or above $150 at expiration. The short 22-day expiration keeps it a momentum capture trade and avoids sitting through the drawdown risk of outright long stock.
Commodity bull market replacing stock bull.
Erik's big-picture view is that the great bull stock market of the early 2020s is giving way to a greater bull commodity market of the late 2020s. Metals from gold to silver to copper to rare earth elements are attracting flows and leading while the S&P action pales in comparison.
S&P downside hedge via put spread.
Erik topped up his S&P 500 bear put spread to full target allocation at an average cost of about $64, using this week's strength. He is happy to pay for downside protection because he is extremely overweight uranium miners, which would likely take a hit in sympathy with a major S&P correction, as Darius Dale warned was possible.
S&P bulls have near-term cushion.
Risk is back on and the S&P 500 is at 7,000 near 52-week highs with reasonably high breadth. A move to 7,100-7,400 would need MAG7 participation, and Apple's earnings could be a near-term tailwind. Systematic trigger points are several hundred points lower below 6,800, giving bulls a cushion; even a retest of the 50-day average near 6,900 could keep bulls in control. A 3-4% decline is needed to start negative feedback loops, so Patrick gives bulls the benefit of the doubt short term.
MAG7 participation needed for S&P advance.
A further S&P advance to 7,100-7,400 will require MAG7 participation. MAG7 has been quite oversold, and Apple's upcoming earnings could become a short-term tailwind that allows the market to gravitate higher.
Dollar may bounce from failed breakdown.
DXY held its September 17 low around 95.12 and did not make a new leg lower the following session even after President Trump's dollar-selling comments. Bad news failing to push the market lower usually marks a bottom, and gold/copper continued up while DXY stopped falling. Erik is watching this closely and looking for a bounce unless Trump makes further comments to intentionally push the dollar lower.
Dollar breakdown targets 90 handle.
There is serious technical damage to the dollar. For the first time, all cross currencies are strengthening against the dollar, with the yen intervention reversal adding the last currency to the basket. DXY is breaking key technical levels and has already broken all 2025 lows; next support is around the 90 handle where 2018 and 2021 lows were established. The window is open for bearish continuation, and it would take a miraculous save to avoid the path of least resistance lower.
WTI calendar spread still has room.
Erik's previously described calendar spread trade, buying CLZ6Z7 (Dec 2026 vs Dec 2027 WTI) at -$1.75 backwardation, has performed beautifully, moving from moderate backwardation into modest contango. He thinks it still has quite a ways to go.
Oil may squeeze to 70.
Middle Eastern risk premiums are now being put into oil. A squeeze of systematic shorts and traders chasing could create a substantial liquidity pivot; Patrick would not be shocked to see WTI squeeze to the $70 handle in the coming week. There is a clear technical breakout that can follow through on a trading basis, though he is unsure whether it would be long-term sustainable.
Gold bull intact, hedge retracement risk.
Gold's bull market is still on, with Trump's dollar comments as the proximal catalyst and a roughly $600 weekly gain. Erik sees an open gap about $1,000 below the market, so a correction or gap fill could happen before moving higher, but he believes gold is headed toward a very ugly blowoff top at some unknown price. He wants options exposure to stay long the upside while limiting downside retracement risk.
Gold and silver need consolidation before buys.
Gold and silver are in a parabolic phase where time is more predictable than price. Patrick expects some exhaustion point within even a week, possibly at higher prices; when buying exhausts, a reversion or consolidation follows. It is hard to add new positions into such froth, so he favors short-term spreads or waiting for consolidations and buying dips, while watching whether gold sustains above 5,000.
Uranium futures breakout targets 120-140.
Uranium futures had a huge breakout to $98 on U3O8. On the weekly chart, measured moves to $120-$140 are in play at some point this year. This looks like a full-on resumption of the 2023 uranium bull craze after the 2024 through early-2025 bear market.
Copper breakout targets 650 to 700.
Copper consolidated at new highs through early January, and the breakout has set in motion a brand new advance. With copper trading at 630, Patrick sees room to 650 and even $7. The entire commodity space is hot and new-high commodities are taking all the flows, so copper could join the current uranium and gold party.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published January 29, 2026, features Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna discussing URA, CCJ, DBC, S&P 500 bear put spread, SPY, MAGS, US Dollar Index (DXY), CLZ6Z7 calendar spread, WTI, GLD, SILVER, COPPER. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna · Tickers: URA, CCJ, DBC, S&P 500 bear put spread, SPY, MAGS, US Dollar Index (DXY), CLZ6Z7 calendar spread, WTI, GLD, SILVER, COPPER