The Commodity Supercycle Is Back: The Macro Shift That Could Reshape Markets
Speakers
Summary
- The "Golden Grain Cycle" in Corn: Corn prices have doubled three times in the last 17 years, typically moving from the cost of production (~$3.50-$4.00) to ~$8.00 due to weather events. Currently, corn is trading near its production cost floor (~$4.20), offering an asymmetric risk profile (5% downside vs. 100% upside).
- Bearish Oil Outlook: Despite geopolitical tensions, the guest predicts oil is heading toward $50/barrel due to structural oversupply. He advises selling rallies rather than buying fear.
- Copper & AI Energy Demand: The massive electricity demand from AI is creating a structural shortage in copper. While prices have run up, dips are viewed as buying opportunities because "it is impossible to have enough copper."
- XRP Utility Thesis: The guest is highly bullish on XRP for cross-border settlements, citing the inefficiency of the current banking system (T+1 settlement vs. seconds on the ledger).
Trade Ideas
"Three times in the last 17 years, the price of corn has doubled from that $350 to $4 a bushel range up to almost $8... currently you're about four... low fours right now." Agricultural commodities trade at their cost of production during surplus years. Corn is currently at this "floor" price. The downside is mathematically limited to the break-even price (~5% drop), while a single weather event (drought) historically triggers a 100% rally. Long corn as a portfolio stabilizer with asymmetric upside. Continued perfect weather leads to bumper crops, keeping prices sideways/dead money for an extended period.
"XRP has a use case... make money move better and faster... You can move money from New York to Tokyo in something like 3 to 15 seconds using the XRPL." The current banking system (nostro/vostro accounts) traps capital inefficiently. As real-world assets (RWAs) get tokenized and cross-border payments seek efficiency, XRP's ledger provides a superior settlement layer, driving demand for the token. Long XRP as a utility play on financial plumbing upgrades. Regulatory crackdowns or adoption of competing blockchains/stablecoins by major banks (e.g., JPM Coin).
Sal Gilbertie
Co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Teucrium Trading
"I am convinced you sell the rallies... There continues to be plenty of oil in the world. I'm a $50 oil guy." Geopolitical spikes (war fears) are temporary noise. The structural reality is oversupply. Therefore, any price spike driven by conflict news should be faded (sold) rather than chased, as the price will gravitate back down to the $50 equilibrium. Short oil futures or ETFs on geopolitical spikes. A major, sustained disruption in the Middle East (e.g., closure of the Strait of Hormuz) that physically removes supply for months.
Sal Gilbertie
Co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Teucrium Trading
"AI demand for electricity... that's just enormous... until somebody starts predicting that we even have enough copper, copper is probably a buy on the dips." AI data centers require massive grid upgrades. These upgrades are copper-intensive. Current supply cannot meet this projected demand. Therefore, price pullbacks are liquidity events to accumulate exposure before the structural shortage bites. Long copper exposure (via futures or miners). Global recession reducing industrial demand; rapid substitution of copper with aluminum in transmission lines.
Sal Gilbertie
Co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Teucrium Trading
"For whatever reason, my entire life, I've owned the silver ETFs versus the gold ETFs... I would on the dips buy buy more silver." Silver often acts as a "high beta" version of gold but with industrial utility. The speaker prefers this volatility and utility mix over pure gold exposure. Overweight Silver relative to Gold. Industrial slowdown (silver is 50% industrial demand) causing it to underperform gold during a recession.
Sal Gilbertie
Co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Teucrium Trading
"China bought their 12 million metric tons... rumored Trump has said that they will buy another 8 million... If they were to do that again, the US soybean balance sheet would tighten up." Economically, China *should* buy from Brazil (cheaper). If they buy from the US, it is purely a political decision to appease the US administration. A confirmed purchase of 8M tons would distort the supply/demand balance and spike US prices. Watch for confirmation of Chinese purchases before entering; currently neutral as global supply is adequate. China ignores political pressure and buys exclusively from Brazil, leaving US farmers with a surplus.
Up Next
This Milk Road Daily video, published February 26, 2026, features Sal Gilbertie discussing CORN, XRP, USO, CPER, FCX, SCCO, SLV, SOYB. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Sal Gilbertie · Tickers: CORN, XRP, USO, CPER, FCX, SCCO, SLV, SOYB