Trump's State Of The Union 'Avoided Issues' Says Tim O'Brien
Summary
- President Trump's State of the Union address ignored the primary voter concern: a genuine affordability crisis driven by spiked gas, electricity, and grocery prices.
- A recent Supreme Court ruling has placed significant parameters on the President's ability to unilaterally declare emergencies to enact tariffs, limiting his executive power on trade.
- The Republican party is projected to lose the House in the upcoming midterms, which would cause legislative policymaking to halt.
- Trump is signaling potential interference in the midterm elections by claiming fraud preemptively, raising the risk of a constitutional crisis in November 2026.
Trade Ideas
Tim O'Brien
Political Analyst / Commentator
Trump is "predisposed to look favorably on the U.K." regarding trade. Furthermore, a recent Supreme Court ruling "essentially started putting parameters on this idea of what can a president say is an emergency and then act unilaterally around whether it's tariffs." The market has been pricing in high tariff risks for all non-US assets. However, the combination of Trump's specific favorability toward the UK and the new legal restrictions on his ability to impose blanket tariffs suggests UK assets are mispriced relative to the actual trade war risk. The UK is likely to get "carve outs." Long UK Equities and British Pound as the "safest" international trade play. Trump ignores the Supreme Court or the "special relationship" deteriorates.
Tim O'Brien
Political Analyst / Commentator
"Gas prices are still higher... Electricity prices have spiked, grocery prices have spiked, and Trump put nothing on the table to ameliorate that." The President is ignoring the "genuine affordability crisis." If inflation in essentials (energy/food) remains sticky and there is no policy support coming, disposable income for the average American is being crushed. This will lead to a contraction in non-essential spending. Short Consumer Discretionary sectors exposed to the domestic US consumer. Wages rise faster than inflation or energy prices collapse naturally.
Tim O'Brien
Political Analyst / Commentator
Trump is "teeing up the possibility at the midterms... that there was electoral fraud afoot" and may take "extraordinary steps to disrupt" the results, potentially leading to a "constitutional crisis." Markets despise uncertainty and institutional instability. If the midterms result in a federal vs. state clash over election administration (which O'Brien notes is legally possible), volatility will spike significantly leading into and following the November election. Long Volatility and Safe Havens (Gold) as a hedge against political instability. The election proceeds smoothly or Republicans hold the House decisively.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 26, 2026, features Tim O'Brien discussing EWU, FXB, XLY, GLD, VIX. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.