The Bad News Is Already Priced In: If Stocks Plunge Tomorrow, Is It Actually a Buying Opportunity? Should You Sell Stocks Before Chuseok? | Aurora Investment Advisory CEO Lee Ji-hwan

Summary

Lee Ji-hwan, CEO of Aurora Investment Advisory, argues that major macro negatives—higher long-term Treasury yields, oil above $100, FX pressure, AI speed-control worries, and an expected 25bp Fed hike—are already largely priced in. He sees limited further downside, treats any pre-Chuseok selloff as a medium- to long-term buying opportunity, and advises holding unless cash is truly needed. He favors oversold semiconductors and power equipment, expects Korean semiconductor equipment and materials to follow, likes Japanese chip equipment via Korea-listed ETFs, and highlights cosmetics/consumer cyclicals plus short-term battery and nuclear momentum trades.

• Macro negatives are judged to be largely priced in before the FOMC.
• A 25bp Fed hike is treated as the base case, with focus on the market reaction.
• Pre-Chuseok weakness is framed as a tranche-buying opportunity for longer-term investors.
• Individual selling before the holiday is expected, but selling solely for holiday cash is discouraged.
• Oversold semiconductors and power equipment are favored for a rebound.
• Korean chip equipment and materials are a conditional follower; Japanese chip equipment is favored via Korea-listed ETFs.
• Cosmetics and consumer cyclicals are highlighted after Chuseok; batteries and nuclear are tactical momentum plays.
• Key risks are oil, long-term yields, FX, Trump policy uncertainty, and foreign selling.